Crude oil markets have fallen during the trading session on Wednesday to kick off the day, but at this point there remains to be seen whether or not it has any follow-through.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market had a rough start to the trading session on Wednesday, as it looks like we are breaking through some minor support. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of volatility, but we had gotten a bit farther ahead of ourselves than would be comfortable. Underneath, the 50-Day EMA sits right around $85 level, and therefore it’s likely that we will continue to see that as a technical support level.
Remember, the crude oil market has a serious lack of physical supply, so there is plenty of reason to believe that we continue to go higher given enough time. That being said, markets do not go straight up in the air forever and therefore it makes perfect sense that we would pull back a little bit in order to offer a bit of value. Whether or not that occurs today remains to be seen, but I would be stunned if this market breaks down below the 50-Day EMA.
Brent markets have plunged as well, it looks like they may be quicker to get to the 50-Day EMA. The 50-Day EMA will be a technical indicator that a lot of people pay attention to, and therefore could offer a short-term “floor the market.” If we turn around and take out the top of the candlestick, then exits in this market looking toward the $95 level again. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where the buyers will eventually try to pick up the market, based on value, but in the short term it looks like there’s a lot of profit-taking going on.
There are signs that perhaps the economy is slowing down, but Russia and Saudi Arabia have both reiterated their desire to keep 1 million barrels per day off the market, and therefore the downside is somewhat limited. I think this is a situation where eventually value hunters will be interested in getting in this market, and pick it up. Because of this, have no interest in shorting the market, and I believe that it’s only a matter of time before we turn right back around.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.