Crude oil markets have rallied again during the day on Thursday as we continue to see a bit of a recovery after a massive selloff.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to show signs of life, breaking above the $70 level. At this point, the market looks as if it is just simply bouncing from a bear market oversold condition, but I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we see signs of exhaustion and oil continues to go much lower.
The 50-Day EMA sits just above the $75 level, and that is an area that could continue to offer psychological and structural resistance as well. After all, we had been consolidating between $80 on the upside and $72.50 on the bottom. The overall attitude of the market has been negative as people are worried about the global economy slowing down, and of course energy is the lifeblood of global growth.
Brent markets also rallied during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a recovery in this market as well. The $70 level offered a hard floor in the market, but we are approaching the previous consolidation area, and should see a bit of market memory in the area of $77.50, which is the bottom of the overall range. The market reaching towards that area could find some type of barrier, and therefore as soon as we form some type of exhaustion candle, it’s likely that we would see sellers jumping into the market.
As far as buying is concerned, at the very least we would need to break above the 50-Day EMA, currently sitting near $81.55 above. That doesn’t seem to be very likely, but if we do break above there then you have to take a look at the recovery as something that may have legs and could continue to go much further. Regardless, it’s going to be very noisy market, as oil typically is. If you can wait for some type of exhaustion candle, you can join in with the longer-term trend, but it’s also worth noting that the $70 level underneath is a major level on longer-term charts. Keep in mind that the value of the US dollar could have a part to play in the market as well, as if it rises, typically that works against commodities.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.