Crude Oil Prices Rebound by 1% after Saudi Arabia and Russia Discuss Market Stability

Key Takeaways

• Crude oil prices rose by 1% on Thursday after a three-day decline, driven by reports of a meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia to enhance market stability.
• Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to OPEC+ production cut targets, boosting market optimism.
• Oversupply concerns persist despite projected stronger oil demand, with an 18-month high in commercial oil stocks in developed OECD countries and Russian oil output remaining high.

Overview

Crude oil prices bounced back on Thursday, rising by 1% after a three-day decline, due to reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia had a meeting to discuss ways of enhancing market stability.

On Thursday, June WTI crude oil futures settled at $68.63, up $0.81 or +1.19%. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) finished at $60.06, up $0.04 or +0.07%.

Saudi Arabia and Russia Reaffirm Commitment to OPEC+ Production Cut Targets, Boosting Market Optimism.

The meeting between Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, and Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, centered on OPEC+’s efforts to maintain market balance.

The two countries remain committed to the OPEC+ group’s decision last October to cut production targets by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023.

Analysts expected the news to stimulate market optimism, considering the recent sell-off experienced in the market.

Financial market recovery and Yellen’s Assurance Boost Oil Prices, Aided by Weak Dollar.

Additionally, oil prices received support from a general recovery in financial markets, following Swiss regulators’ move to provide Credit Suisse with a lifeline and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s assurance that the US banking system remains sound.

The weakening of the dollar also contributed to the uptick in oil prices, as it made greenback-denominated oil cheaper for holders of foreign currencies, thus increasing demand.

Oversupply Concerns Continue Despite Projected Stronger Oil Demand

Despite the recent projections of a stronger oil demand by both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), oversupply concerns continue to plague the market.

The IEA reported an 18-month high in commercial oil stocks in developed OECD countries, while Russian oil output in February remained close to pre-war levels in Ukraine, despite sanctions on its seaborne exports.

Fragile Market Sentiment as Investors Weigh Banking Sector Developments in US and Europe

Analysts suggest that market sentiment remains fragile as investors continue to weigh the recent developments in the banking sector in both the US and Europe.

The European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates, as anticipated, also weighed on oil prices. Analysts expect oil trading to remain volatile, particularly if other central banks pursue rate hikes.

Authorities are supporting the banking sector while managing the collapse of mid-tier institutions in the US. Nonetheless, traders remain uncertain that the worst is behind us.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $65.89 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $80.97 will change the main trend to up. The market is also down seven sessions from its last swing top. This puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The futures contract range is $37.04 to $100.48. The market is currently trading inside its retracement at $68.76 to $61.27. Trader reaction to this area will determine the long-term direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract.
The nearest resistance is another major retracement zone at $73.05 to $78.29.

Daily June WTI Crude Oil Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the 50% level at $68.76 is likely to determine the direction of the June WTI crude oil futures contract on Friday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $68.76 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is this week’s low at $65.89. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into $61.27.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $68.76 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into $73.05 over the near-term.