Crude oil markets look like they are building a base on the weekly chart, although it’s worth noting that there’s a lot of confusion out there so that has a lot to do with what we are seeing.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has shown itself to be confused yet again during the trading week, as we are trying to figure out where we are going in the future. Ultimately, a lot of what you are seeing is nonsense surrounding expectations of the Federal Reserve and a potential “pivot.” With inflation at 7.7%, it’s difficult to imagine why they would, so at least that part of the equation should eventually work itself out. However, there is a supply concern, and that might be the more organic reason for this market to eventually go higher. If we can break above the $92.50 level, I think we do just that.
Brent markets also have the look of a market that’s trying to build a base, sitting just above the 50-Week EMA, and just below the $100 level. The $100 level obviously has a certain amount of psychology attached to it, so I would pay close attention to it. If we were to break above there on a daily close, then I think the weekly chart will suddenly look a lot more constructive, perhaps sending Brent back up to the $120 level.
On the other hand, the $90 level underneath looks to offer support, and a breakdown below that level would be extraordinarily negative. At that point, I anticipate that we would see very little in the way of strength, and it’s very possible that Brent could drop down to the $80 level before it’s all said and done in that environment.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.