European markets heat up with Davos starting; Germany's 2023 economy contracts amid inflation and rates, DAX and FTSE face bond yields and caution.
European stock markets are trading lower on Monday, with investors focusing on the upcoming World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. The Stoxx 600, Germany’s DAX, and the UK’s FTSE 100 are all registering declines in early trading, influenced by a mix of sector performances and broader economic concerns.
Germany’s economy, contracting by 0.3% in 2023, is primarily due to high inflation, rising interest rates, and reduced demand. This contraction is casting a shadow over the region’s economic outlook. The WEF, titled “Rebuilding Trust,” is addressing key global issues, including trade, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. High-profile attendees like China’s Li Qiang and France’s Emmanuel Macron are participating in significant discussions.
The DAX is facing downward pressure, partly due to rising Eurozone government bond yields and cautious investor sentiment regarding rate cuts. Comments from the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane are suggesting a careful approach to rate adjustments, contrasting with market expectations. Key players like Commerzbank and Dassault Aviation are influencing market movements, with the latter’s stock declining after missing aircraft delivery targets and a downgrade from Deutsche Bank.
The FTSE 100 is reversing early gains, affected by a sell-off in luxury and banking sectors. Burberry’s warning about a slowdown in luxury goods demand and HSBC’s downgrade are impacting the index. Investors are awaiting the UK’s consumer price inflation and retail sales data for more clarity on potential rate adjustments. The market is also responding to corporate forecasts, as seen in the performance of companies like PageGroup and Crest Nicholson.
The European market is appearing bearish in the short term, influenced by economic uncertainties, cautious investor sentiment regarding interest rate policies, and mixed corporate performances. The ongoing discussions at the WEF in Davos are providing further insights, potentially impacting market directions in the coming days.
The FTSE 100 Index, at 7599.51, is currently finding support above its 200-day moving average at 7571.47. This level, along with the minor support at 7524.87, forms a critical support cluster just above the 200-day MA.
This zone is pivotal; if the index fails to hold above these levels, particularly the 200-day MA, there’s a risk of a significant plunge.
Despite being above these supports, the index is still below the minor resistance at 7687.48, suggesting some hesitation in the upward move. The current setup indicates a bullish sentiment but with caution, given the importance of maintaining above the 200-day moving average and minor support.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.