Profitability analysis examines the more attractive destination for investors in 2024, between rival memecoins, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB).
Dogecoin (DOGE) price is trading above the $0.082 on Feb 11, up 11% from the 2024 low recorded on Jan 8. With the ongoing altcoin rally yet to spread to the memecoin sector, on-chain data shows more than 50% of DOGE holders could be happy to hold within the current circumstances.
Profitability analysis shows that Dogecoin remains a more attractive destination for investors, compared to rivals meme coins like Shiba Inu.
As the crypto market rally heats up, can DOGE bulls capitalize on this to trigger bigger price gains?
In the build up to the Bitcoin ETF approval verdict, investors rotated funds into BTC and large Layer-1 mega cap altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Avalanche (AVAX) in a bid to make the most of the market euphoria.
Effectively, memecoins suffered a mild-pull back which saw Dogecoin price dip to its 2024 bottom of $0.074 on Jan 8. But as the ETF approval euphoria waned, liquidity returned to the memecoin markets.
The likes of BONK and Shiba Inu gained media traction in recent weeks, however, on-chain data shows Dogecoin remains the most attractive destination for investors.
IntoTheBlock’s Historical In/Out of the Money chart below tracks the total number of a cryptocurrency’s funded addresses that are currently in profitable positions at the current prices.
With DOGE price rallying 11% from its 2024 low, the data shows that over 2.87 million current Dogecoin holders are sitting on unrealized profits as of Feb 11. This works out to 52.21% of the total DOGE investors.
2.11 million DOGE addresses, or 38.45% of total are in a net-loss position, while 521,590 addresses (9.35%) are at break-even point.
In concise terms, the Dogecoin profitable addresses are now in the overwhelming majority. Surpassing the 50% threshold of profitable addresses is generally seen as a positive indicator for a blockchain network, signaling optimism, investor confidence, and potential price appreciation.
Dogecoin’s current profitability ratio becomes a much bigger deal, when viewed in comparison to its rival meme tokens. With a valuation of $5.6 billion as of Feb 2024, Shiba Inu (SHIB) is the second-largest memecoin by market capitalization.
The Shiba Inu profitability ratio shows that only 394,980 (29.79%) of its current investors are in the green. With an overwhelming majority 63.47% currently underwater as of Feb 11.
When a majority of current investors are making profits, it effectively creates a positive feedback loop among major stakeholders like whales and miners, encouraging more accumulation activity among them and driving prices higher.
And when the majority are at a loss, the opposite applies. The longer investors hold at a loss, the quicker they might sell once prices approach their break even point, effectively slowing down a potential rally.
In terms of 2024 short-term price action, Dogecoin is likely to face a less fierce resistance during a market rally than Shiba Inu. Since the majority of the current DOGE holders are in profit, they are likely to hold longer or even buy more to double down on their positions.
Meanwhile for a token like SHIB with 60% of its investors underwater, many of them could opt to exit once prices approach their break-even price, creating potential choke points at key resistance levels.
In effect, Dogecoin appears to be a more profitable ecosystem, with more positive market price sentiment than Shiba Inu for 2024. However, over the past month, both SHIB and DOGE prices have been closely correlated.
As seen below, both the largest memecoin globally, have delivered an identical ~13% price recovery between Jan 8 and Feb 11.
As the crypto market rally grows, DOGE bulls will face stiff resistance at the $0.95 area. Scaling that sell-wall could, however, open the doors to a decisive rally above $0.10.
On the downside the bears will have the work cut out to break below $0.07. That price mark has proved to be a key psychological support level for Dogecoin over the past year. And with more DOGE holders now in profit it would get even stronger.
On the flipside, investors with bigger risk-appetites could consider Dogecoin a more saturated market, and Shiba Inu undervalued, with more prospects for bigger price swings. If this scenario plays out, SHIB price could stage a major breakout towards $0.000012 as observed in December 2023.
However, the looming sell-wall at $0.000011 could pose a major challenge to a Shiba Inu price rally. With more than 60% of SHIB investors holding at a loss, many could choose to exit at that chokepoint, inadvertently slowing the rally or causing another pullback.
If market sentiment flips bearish the Shiba Inu bull can count on the $0.000008 area for support. Considering that the last time SHIB traded below $0.000079 was 5 months ago in November 2023.
Ibrahim Ajibade Ademolawa is a seasoned research analyst with a background in Commercial Banking and Web3 startups, specializing in DeFi and TradFi analysis. He holds a B.A. in Economics and is pursuing an MSc in Blockchain.