E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – November 28, 2018 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening. Optimism that US-China trade negotiations this weekend would yield positive results is helping to support the market. Gains are likely being limited by general nervousness ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He is expected to reiterate his call for gradual rate hikes, while emphasizing the central bank will remain “data dependent” in its decision-making process.

At 1442 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2694.75, up 11.25 or +0.42%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2626.00 will reaffirm the downtrend with 2603.00 to 2602.75 the next major downside targets. The market isn’t close to changing the trend to up, but it is in a position to challenge a series of retracement levels.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 2748.75 will shift momentum to the upside.

The major retracement zone resistance is 2701.75 to 2748.50. Inside this retracement zone is a short-term retracement zone at 2722.00 to 2744.75. The strongest resistance area is a price cluster formed by the short-term Fibonacci level at 2744.75 and the longer-term 50% level at 2748.50. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at 2701.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2701.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a drive into the short-term 50% level at 2722.00. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the resistance cluster at 2744.75 to 2748.50.

Bearish Scenario

The inability of overcome and a sustained move under 2701.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a 50% correction of the three-day rally from the 2626.00 main bottom.