ETH and $1,900 in the Hands of Fed Chair Powell and Staking Stats

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader market in positive territory on Tuesday, gaining 0.38% to end the day at $1,858.
• Bullish pre-Fed sentiment provided support while regulatory risk and SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling remained headwinds.
• However, the shorter-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) gained 0.38% on Tuesday. Partially reversing a 2.06% loss from Monday, ETH ended the day at $1,858. Despite the bullish session, ETH fell to sub-$1,850 for the second time since July 10.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.10% to $1,856. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,853 before steadying.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH sitting below the $1,895 – $1,865 support band and the 50-day EMA ($1,871) while holding above the 200-day EMA ($1,778), sending bearish near-term but bulling longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 45.50 reading signaled a bearish outlook, signaling a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,778). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,871) would give the bulls a run at the upper level of the $1,865 – $1,895 support band and $1,900.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sat below the $1,895 – $1,865 support band. ETH remained below the 200-day ($1,882) and 50-day ($1,880) EMAs. A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 200-day EMA sends bearish near and longer-term price signals.

However, a move through the EMAs and the $1,895 – $1,865 support band would give the bulls a run at $1,950.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 40.56 sends bearish ETH price signals, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the bearish RSI supports a run at the $1,185 – $1,795 support band.

US Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators Provide Comfort

It was a busy Tuesday session, with investors preparing for the Fed interest rate decision and press conference.

US corporate earnings and a surge in US consumer confidence provided support. Better-than-expected Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) earnings delivered support, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index surging from 110.1 to 117.0 in July, also bullish.

However, uncertainty about the future of the spot BTC ETF applications and the US regulatory landscape remained headwinds. The SEC approval of one, some, or all of the BTC ETFs could lead to the launch of ETH ETFs, a bullish price scenario.

Regulatory uncertainty remains a headwind that could hamper the growth of the spot crypto ETF market.

Staking Statistics Send Bullish Pre-Fed Price Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows surged from 23,104 ETH on Monday to 106,720 on Tuesday. Significantly, staking inflows broke through the 100,000 threshold, a bullish price signal.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will return to normal withdrawal levels throughout the morning.

On Monday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 22,830 ETH surplus ($42.43 million), down 43% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 32,900 versus withdrawals of 10,070 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 30,470 ETH, equivalent to approximately $56.54 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.79%, up 0.52% over 24 hours. The rise in the staking APR and surge in staking inflows are price positive.