ETH Bears to Target Sub-$1,800 on US Jobs Report and Fed Bets

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader market in the red on Thursday, sliding by 3.30% to end the day at $1,848.
• US economic indicators and the Fear of the Fed sent ETH to sub-$1,850.
• The technical indicators turned bearish, signaling a return to $1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 3.30% on Thursday. Following a 1.29% loss on Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,848. The bearish session left ETH at sub-$1,850 for the first time in six sessions.

Tracking the broader market, ETH rose to a late-morning high of $1,958. ETH broke through the upper level of the $1,900 – $1,930 resistance band before hitting the reverse. The reversal saw ETH fall through the resistance band to a final-hour low of $1,848.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.20% to $1,852. A mixed start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,829 before rising to a high of $1,854.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH/USD fall below the lower level of the $1,930 – $1,900 resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($1,849) before finding support.

ETH/USD currently sits above the 50-day ($1,849) and 200-day ($1,754) EMAs, signaling bullish momentum over the near and long term.

Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed on the 200-day EMA and reflected bearish momentum.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 48.61 reading signaled a bearish outlook and aligned with the 50-day EMA, supporting a fall through the 200-day EMA ($1,754) to bring the upper level of the $1,665 – $1,625 support band into view.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, ETH/USD sits below the 50-day ($1,907) and 200-day ($1,860) EMAs, sending bearish near-term and longer-term signals.

Significantly, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, signaling a likely return to sub-$1,800 to bring the $1,665 – $1,625 support band into view.

ETH/USD should move through the lower level of the resistance band and the 50-day EMA ($1,907) to support a breakout from $1,930.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 29.95 indicates a bearish stance, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the bearish RSI aligns with the EMAs and supports a return to sub-$1,800.

Staking Statistics Support a Bearish Outlook on Staking APR Decline

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 33,504 ETH on Wednesday to $48,096 on Thursday. However, ETH staking inflows remained below the all-important 100,000 ETH threshold.

The overnight withdrawal profile was relatively bullish, with principal withdrawals mostly at normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bearish. Projections show principal withdrawals will spike before returning to more normal withdrawal levels.

On Wednesday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 30,120 ETH surplus (-19.97%) over 24 hours, equivalent to a positive balance of $57.85 million. Deposits totaled 33,610 versus withdrawals of 3,500 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 41,040 ETH, equivalent to approximately $75.95 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.61%, down 0.53% over 24 hours. The downward trend in the staking APR remains a drag for staking inflows and is price negative.

Binance-Related News and US Economic Indicators Sink ETH

It was a busy Thursday session, with US economic indicators influencing the afternoon. Better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers supported a more hawkish Fed policy outlook. However, the ADP nonfarm employment change numbers did the damage.

A 497k surge in nonfarm employment fueled bets on consecutive rate hikes in July and September, weighing on riskier assets.

Binance-related news added to the doom and gloom.

The Day Ahead

It is a busy Friday session, with US economic indicators likely to influence a second session. The US Jobs Report will garner interest this afternoon and could cement July bets on a Fed rate hike. However, bets on a September move remained subdued, with investors hoping for softer inflation numbers before the September FOMC meeting.

While the US economic calendar will provide direction, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for crypto-ETF-related chatter and SEC v Ripple-linked news, which would also influence investor sentiment.

With Binance and Coinbase in hot water with the SEC, investors should also consider SEC v Binance and SEC v Coinbase (COIN)-related news.