It is likely to be a testy day for ETH, with the SEC driving uncertainty across the US digital asset space. The US Jobs Report will also influence sentiment.
Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.22% on Thursday. Following a 1.81% fall on Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,836. The bearish session left ETH short of $1,900 for the eleventh consecutive session.
This morning, ETH was down 0.09% to $1,834. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,839 before falling to a low of $1,829.
The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH sat below the 50-day EMA ($1,867) while holding above the 200-day ($1,785), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.
Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 42.27 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,785). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,867) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.
Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sits above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH remained below the 50-day ($1,856) and 200-day ($1,872) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.
An ETH move through the 50-day and 200-day EMAs would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 support band to target $1,950. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $1,815 – $1,795 support band in play.
The 14-4H RSI reading of 41.17 sends bearish price signals, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band.
There were no Ethereum network-related events to provide direction on Thursday. The lack of network updates left ETH in the hands of the broader crypto market.
Government bond yields weighed on riskier assets, with the US sovereign rating downgrade to AA+ resonating.
However, uncertainty toward SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling, and the future of the spot BTC ETH market remained headwinds. This year, SEC Chair Gary Gensler threw ETH into the security basket, increasing price sensitivity to SEC activity. Significantly, investors expect ETH ETFs to be the next focal point after the launch of BTC ETFs.
A delay in launching a comprehensive ETF market would likely limit institutional money inflows near-term.
According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 27,648 ETH on Wednesday to 23,232 on Thursday. The fall in staking inflows to sub-25,000 was a bearish price signal.
The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show withdrawals will remain at normal withdrawal levels.
On Thursday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 22,090 ETH surplus ($40.93 million), down 33% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 29,060 versus withdrawals of 6,970 ETH.
According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 47,470 ETH, equivalent to approximately $87.11 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.76%, unchanged over 24 hours. While the staking APR upward trend is bullish, the fall in the net staking balance and staking inflows are bearish.
With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.