ETH Remains at Risk of Sub-$1,800 on SEC-Fueled Uncertainty

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader market in the red for a second session on Thursday, falling 0.22% to end the day at $1,836.
• Investors failed to shake off the bearish sentiment from Wednesday, with rising government bond yields and the SEC weighing on buyer appetite.
• The shorter-term technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a fall to sub-$1,800.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.22% on Thursday. Following a 1.81% fall on Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,836. The bearish session left ETH short of $1,900 for the eleventh consecutive session.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.09% to $1,834. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,839 before falling to a low of $1,829.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH sat below the 50-day EMA ($1,867) while holding above the 200-day ($1,785), sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals. Notably, the 50-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, a bearish price signal.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 42.27 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA ($1,785). However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA ($1,867) would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band to target $1,950.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sits above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH remained below the 50-day ($1,856) and 200-day ($1,872) EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the 50-day and 200-day EMAs would support a breakout from the $1,865 – $1,895 support band to target $1,950. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $1,815 – $1,795 support band in play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 41.17 sends bearish price signals, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band.

Government Bond Yields Send ETH and Crypto Market South

There were no Ethereum network-related events to provide direction on Thursday. The lack of network updates left ETH in the hands of the broader crypto market.

Government bond yields weighed on riskier assets, with the US sovereign rating downgrade to AA+ resonating.

However, uncertainty toward SEC plans to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court ruling, and the future of the spot BTC ETH market remained headwinds. This year, SEC Chair Gary Gensler threw ETH into the security basket, increasing price sensitivity to SEC activity. Significantly, investors expect ETH ETFs to be the next focal point after the launch of BTC ETFs.

A delay in launching a comprehensive ETF market would likely limit institutional money inflows near-term.

Staking Statistics Continue to Send Bearish Price Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 27,648 ETH on Wednesday to 23,232 on Thursday. The fall in staking inflows to sub-25,000 was a bearish price signal.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals at above-normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session are bullish. Projections show withdrawals will remain at normal withdrawal levels.

On Thursday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 22,090 ETH surplus ($40.93 million), down 33% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 29,060 versus withdrawals of 6,970 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 47,470 ETH, equivalent to approximately $87.11 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 5.76%, unchanged over 24 hours. While the staking APR upward trend is bullish, the fall in the net staking balance and staking inflows are bearish.