Ethereum to $10K is Possible This Cycle — Fractal Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped by nearly 45% year-to-date to a recent low of around $1,755, making it one of the worst-performing major cryptocurrencies so far in 2025.

However, analyst Ted Pillows anticipates an eventual bullish reversal trend in the Ethereum market this year, citing the similarities between the current downtrend and the one that preceded the March 2020 crash.

Ethereum 2020 Fractal Hints Rally Toward $10,000

In 2020, ETH plummeted nearly 60% in a single month, dropping from $280 to as low as $110 as investors panicked in response to global market turmoil triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, this extreme sell-off marked a major accumulation zone, and within the following 20 months, ETH surged by an astounding 1,500%, reaching its all-time high of $4,878 in November 2021.

Historical price action and technical indicators suggest that the $1,400-$1,600 range could act as a strong accumulation level, much like the March 2020 lows that preceded ETH’s multi-year bull run.

This level aligns with Ethereum’s multi-year ascending trendline, which has historically provided support during bearish phases before the asset resumes its long-term uptrend toward $10,000.

Ethereum Monthly Support Holds, Signals Potential Recovery

A new monthly chart analysis reveals that Ethereum has tested its long-term support trendline, which has been in place since 2019. Despite the recent sell-off, ETH has bounced off this support, maintaining its long-term bullish structure.

The monthly support level aligns with past accumulation zones, indicating that the current price action could be a retest before a significant uptrend. Historical patterns suggest that Ethereum tends to rally sharply after confirming long-term support.

This trendline previously served as a launchpad for Ethereum’s 2020-2021 bull run, where ETH skyrocketed from $110 to nearly $5,000. If history repeats, Ethereum could be setting up for another exponential move toward $6,000-$10,000 in this cycle.

Cooling Inflation Boost Rate Cut Odds for June

The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, down from 3% in January. This marks the slowest increase in four months, signaling that the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening may be having the desired effect.

However, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose 0.2% month-over-month, keeping pressure on the Fed to assess the full impact of inflation before adjusting interest rates.

The Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate remains between 4.25% and 4.50%, and rate cuts are expected later this year.

According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders in the interest-rate futures market are pricing in a 57.3% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by June 2025, with at least three cuts expected by the end of the year.

A shift to looser monetary policy could boost risk assets like cryptocurrencies, mirroring the environment of near-zero interest rates in 2020, which fueled Ethereum’s last major bull run.

Potential Risks to Ethereum’s Upside Outlook

Adding to macroeconomic uncertainty, President Trump doubled tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% and imposed 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican goods, set to take effect on April 2. This could increase costs for imported goods and reignite inflation, potentially delaying the Fed’s rate cuts.

Additionally, U.S. investors withdrew over $380 million from Ethereum ETFs in response to Trump’s tariffs, reflecting their fears of a long-term downturn in riskier assets.