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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Dollar Dips to $103.68, More Sell-off Ahead?
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Key Points:
- US Dollar Index dips to $103.68 amid housing data miss; Eurozone, UK data in focus.
- Upcoming US Durable Goods data, Eurozone M3 Money Supply, and UK MPC speech eyed.
- Dollar shows bearish tilt under $103.86 pivot; EUR/USD, GBP/USD bullish above key levels.
Events Ahead:
Looking forward, the market braces for impactful data: US Durable Goods Orders are projected to decline by -4.9%, a stark contrast to the previous period’s 0.0% reading.
Meanwhile, Core Durable Goods Orders could see a slight uptick of 0.2%, compared to an anticipated 0.5%. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI year-on-year is expected to show a deceleration to 6.0% from 5.4%, reflecting a cooling housing market.
Additionally, the CB Consumer Confidence index might remain unchanged at 114.8, while the Richmond Manufacturing Index is forecasted to improve to -4 from -15, potentially offering a glimpse of resilience in the manufacturing sector.
For Eurozone, attention shifts to the M3 Money Supply year-on-year, anticipated at a modest increase of 0.3% from 0.1%, and Private Loans year-on-year expected to grow by 0.4%, slightly up from 0.3%.
For UK, the market’s focus will soon turn to MPC Member Ramsden’s upcoming speech, which could offer insights into the Bank of England’s monetary policy outlook and its implications for the GBP/USD pair.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index’s pivot point stands at $103.86, with direction appears to be bearish. Resistance levels are plotted at $104.15, $104.44, and $104.69, delineating potential hurdles for upward progression. Support figures, identified at $103.44, $103.17, and $102.91, play a crucial role in underpinning the Dollar’s value.
The technical landscape, underscored by the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $104.01 and $103.78 respectively, suggests a balanced momentum.
The analysis leans towards a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $103.86, indicating a cautious outlook on the Dollar’s trajectory.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
In today’s financial analysis, the EUR/USD pair exhibited a modest uptick, trading at 1.08559—a 0.06% increase. The currency pair hovers around a pivotal point at $1.0839, which serves as a critical juncture for future price movements.
With immediate resistance levels mapped at $1.0860, $1.0887, and $1.0915, the pair faces potential obstacles in its ascent. Conversely, support levels at $1.0814, $1.0790, and $1.0762 provide a safety net against downward trends.
The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, standing at $1.0812 and $1.0824 respectively, lend additional insight into the market’s momentum.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast
The GBP/USD pair edged marginally higher in the latest session, posting a 0.01% gain to trade at $1.2685. The pivot point for the day is set at $1.2661, indicating a key level for traders to watch. Resistance levels at $1.2699, $1.2728, and $1.2759 delineate potential hurdles for upward movement, while support levels at $1.2626, $1.2590, and $1.2554 provide cushions against declines.
The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, closely aligned at $1.2644 and $1.2642 respectively, underscore the pair’s current stability.
This technical setup suggests a bullish sentiment should the pair sustain above the $1.2661 threshold, pointing to an optimistic outlook for the GBP/USD in the immediate term.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
About the Author
Arslan Aliauthor
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
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