EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $104.50; Triangle in Play

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Jul 24, 2024, 07:48 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped to -17, missing the forecast of -7.
U.S. existing home sales fell to 3.89 million, below the forecast of 3.99 million.
French Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.1; German Manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.6.

In this article:

EUR/USD

+0.06%

GBP/USD

+0.07%

Market Overview

On July 23, the Richmond Manufacturing Index dropped to -17, below the forecast of -7, and June’s -10, signalling a notable decline in manufacturing activity. Additionally, U.S. existing home sales fell to 3.89 million units, missing the forecast of 3.99 million and well below the previous 4.11 million.

In Europe, consumer confidence in the Eurozone remained steady at -13, matching expectations but showing no improvement.

On July 24, French and German PMI data were released. The French Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.1 from a forecast of 45.8, while the services PMI improved slightly to 50.7 from 49.7.

Germany’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.6, below the forecast of 44.1, while the services PMI slightly decreased to 52.0 from the expected 53.2.

Events Ahead

Looking ahead, the Eurozone’s flash PMIs are anticipated, with the manufacturing PMI expected at 46.0 and services PMI at 52.9. The GBP/USD will be influenced by the UK’s flash manufacturing PMI, forecast at 51.1, and services PMI at 52.5.

In the U.S., the flash PMIs for manufacturing and services are forecast at 51.7 and 54.7, respectively. Additionally, new home sales data is expected, with a forecast of 639K, up from the previous 619K.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $104.436, up 0.01%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is $104.542. Immediate resistance levels are $104.796, $104.997, and $105.216.

Support levels are $104.204, $103.961, and $103.651. The 50-day EMA is $104.375, while the 200-day EMA is $104.807.

An ascending triangle suggests resistance near $104.540, and a break above this level could trigger strong buying. The outlook remains bullish above $104.54, but a break below this level could lead to sharp selling.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.08512, down 0.08%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is $1.08685. Immediate resistance levels are $1.09032, $1.09216, and $1.09448. Support levels are $1.08412, $1.08246, and $1.08052.

The 50-day EMA is $1.08759, while the 200-day EMA is $1.08252. The outlook remains bearish below $1.08685; a break above this level could signal a bullish trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD is trading at $1.28958, down 0.14%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is $1.28997. Immediate resistance levels are $1.29417, $1.29791, and $1.30269. Support levels are $1.28555, $1.28151, and $1.27792.

The 50-day EMA stands at $1.29178, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.28113. The outlook is bearish below $1.28997; a break above this level could signal a bullish trend.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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