Initially, on Thursday, the Euro tried to recover a bit, but you can see has been turned around completely. At this point, we are threatening to break down to even lower levels.
The Euro tried to rally early on Thursday but gave back gains as it looks like the 1.05 level will continue to offer a bit of the ceiling. Furthermore, the Euro has a whole host of issues, not the least of which is that its central bank can’t do much at this point due to inflationary pressures. In fact, they already started the ball rolling on a potential turnaround in attitude. Because of this, I would anticipate that the Euro will continue to suffer at the hands of the US dollar, which is by far the strongest currency out there right now. The central bank in the European Union has to deal with inflation, energy loss, and bond market problems in peripheral countries such as Italy.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve seems hell-bent on raising interest rates and causing a massive recession, so that tends to attract people to the US dollar for safety. I think that’s going to be the play for quite some time, although there will be the occasional rally. Those rallies should do nothing but offer an opportunity to take advantage of “cheap US dollars.” At the first signs of exhaustion, I will be more than willing to short the market, because quite frankly there’s just no momentum here at all.
Once we break down through the bottom, it will open up the Euro for a move to the 1.02 level, and then eventually parity. Parity is something that I anticipate seeing by the end of the year, although it will probably be very messy on the way down there.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.