The Euro broke down significantly during the trading session after the Nonfarm Payroll numbers came out, as well as poor economic numbers in Germany.
The Euro has initially fallen during the trading session on Friday, but there has been a significant amount of recovery late in the day as traders go home for the weekend. That being said, this could set up a nice selling opportunity above near the 1.10 level, as the area had been previous support, and it should now offer a bit of “market memory” in the form of resistance. On the other hand, if the market was to break down below the bottom of the hammer forming for the trading session it should send this market down to the 1.09 level. The Euro continues to suffer at the hands of the US dollar due to the US economy doing to much better, and quite frankly I believe that most of the main reason we had seen the Euro recover was simple short covering. Traders do not want to be in the market going into the weekend, and it should be noted that most of the short covering happened closer to 11 AM in New York City, which coincides with a lot of Europeans going home.
Going forward, I’m looking for signs of exhaustion to start selling, because the range that had been so crucial for this pair has clearly been violated. The first area I would look for trouble is the 1.10 level, and then the 1.11 level. Ultimately, I will keep you up-to-date on what’s going on in this pair at FX Empire, but going into the Monday session it’s probably best to see some type of bounce that you can start shorting. Otherwise, if we do get a break down below the lows, this pair unwinds rather rapidly.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.