The US dollar continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the market will have to digest a lot of questions and influence from the outside world, not just the currency markets.
The Euro has been all over the place during the past week as we have gotten the US elections and the Federal Reserve announcement. So, with all of that being said, we did see the euro fall pretty hard, but towards the end of the week, the dollar started to slip a bit, but at this point in time, we were still very much in the middle of consolidation.
So that being said, I think we’re basically doing the same thing we had done before. This stochastic oscillator is crossing in an oversold condition, and therefore I think it does suggest perhaps the euro could bounce, but again, I think it’s just more of the same sideways action than anything else.
The US dollar initially rallied pretty significantly against the Japanese yen but has given back the gains now to see a certain amount of noise. Also, the 150 yen level underneath should be support, with the 155 yen level above offer resistance. If we can break above the 155 yen level, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the 162.50 yen level.
On a breakdown below the 150 yen level, then we’ll have to reset and see how things play out, but ultimately, I do think that ends up being a buying opportunity because despite the fact that the Federal Reserve just cut rates, the bond market doesn’t seem to be paying attention, and rates continue to climb in America overall. So, with that, I think the carry trade is still alive.
The Australian dollar is all over the place for the week. It looks like we’ll probably close ever so slightly to the upside, but just barely. And really the only thing that this candlestick ended up sorting out is the fact that we are still very much in the same range. There’s really nothing going on here that I see being different than the last several months.
So, with that, I think the Australian dollar continues a lot of back and forth action. And I think ultimately, we aren’t going to have to try to figure out a bigger move. But if you look at it, this goes all the way back to roughly summer of 2022 and not much has changed. We’ve had, like I said, a lot of range bound trading, but that’s about it. I don’t see this being any different.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.