EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro fails at resistance again

While I do recognize that the 1.12 level underneath is at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and that we have seen support there, we also have a massive amount of resistance at the 1.15 handle. Going into the last week of the year, I don’t know that we are going to see a major move without some type of major headline. Granted, it can be a very illiquid time of year, and that can exaggerate moves, but those are short-lived. Beyond that, there is no conviction behind them most of the time, and it quite frankly can be machine driven. These typically correct themselves but that doesn’t mean that you don’t use stop losses.

EUR/USD Video 24.12.18

If we can get a daily close above the 1.15 handle, then I might be willing to take a flyer on a potential move towards 1.18 handle. However, I think we are more likely to go back down towards the 1.12 level than that. If we were to break down below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, then it opens the door to the 1.10 level. Keep in mind that a hard Brexit not only hurts the United Kingdom, but it also hurts the European Union. Because of this, the lower economic numbers in the European Union will continue to hurt the currency, and of course if there is concern about global trade, that typically will help the greenback as well. All things being equal though, I believe that the next couple of weeks will probably be choppy and sideways.