EURUSD Bias for a Roll Back Lower

Building on the Thursday Bullish Outside pattern through notable resistance in the 1.0840/48 area, but reluctant to test modest resistance at 1.0925.

We see the Monday bias for a roll back lower and whilst capped by 1.1053 we see bearish pressures for late April and into May.

For Today:

We see a downside bias for 1.0802 ; break here aims for 1.0786, maybe 1.0731.

But above 1.0900 opens risk up to 1.0925 and 1.0955.

Short-/Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:

Into May we see bias for a further for a roll lower to teh range, then for a retest of the 1.0459 March cycle low.

As we have stated since last year, for 2015 (Q2?), the threat is to PARITY and just below here, .9900, the 78.6% retrace of the entire 2000-2008 bull rally.

Overshoot risk for Q2 is now lower to the .9609 swing low from 2002.

What Changes This? Through 1.1053 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.1249. 

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2 Hour EURUSD Chart[/caption]