Gold Price Analysis: Bears in Control as Support Levels Tested

Gold Forecast Video for 28.06.23 by Bruce Powers

Gold again tests support near the low of the trend at 1,910 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1,911. At the time of this writing gold was continuing to fall and had reached a low of 1,911. It is on track to close at a new daily closing low for the retracement indicating that bears are back in charge and increasing the chance it goes below the recent trend low. If it keeps falling in the near-term, watch for possible support around the internal uptrend line, around 1,907 currently, followed by the 200-Day EMA at 1,896.

Price Rejected at 100-Day EMA Resistance

For five days now gold has been below the 100-Day EMA, testing it as resistance, and continuing a series of lower daily highs that define an acceleration of the downtrend. This is bearish behavior which is again kicking in today given the selling seen later in the session. However, as noted above, potentially significant support is not much lower at the 200-Day EMA. Since this is the second approach towards the line to test it as support, and the first was successful in late-February and early-March, gold can be expected to find support at the 200-Day line on this current approach if it is to fall that far.

Signs of Symmetry Between Corrections

There is symmetry between the current correction and the previous one that began off the February 2 swing high. That first correction was 7.9% and the current correction is 8.3%. On a relative basis gold is overdue for a bullish reversal that is sustainable. This increases the chance that if gold does fall below last week’s low it may not go much further. And the 200-Day support area is sitting there to stop a further decline.

To summarize, gold is in an area where a bullish reversal might occur as it has reached support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and it bounced off that price zone once already. Even if gold does continue to fall, significant support of the 200-Day line is close by, as well as a less significant internal trendline.

Daily Close Above 1,937 Needed for Bullish Signal

As it stands now, gold would need a daily close above the three-day high of 1,937 and 100-Day EMA, now at 1,938, for a convincing bullish sign.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.