Gold Price Forecast: Falls Further After Reaching New Record High

Gold is attempting to retrace part of its recent advance following a new record high of 2,484 reached yesterday. Today, gold has pulled back further, dropping below Wednesday’s low of 2,451 to reach a low of 2,440 for the day. Also, today’s low is below the prior record high of 2,450. However, trading continues near the lows of the day and a new daily low could be reached by today’s close.

Initial Potential Support Levels

There are several initial price levels to watch for possible support to show up. The first is at the April 12 swing high of 2,431. A little lower is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,411, followed by the 50% retracement at 2,389. Somewhat more weight is given to the 2,389-price level as it is also a match with a prior interim swing high from June 7. A pullback to test that price zone as support may provide a nice setup for a bullish continuation. It is above both the 20- and 50-Day MAs, at 2,370 and 2,357, respectively. Also, it is above all the trendlines.

A Long-Term Target Reached at 2,480

This week’s new record high of 2,484 completed a key long-term target for gold from a large rising ABCD pattern at 2,480. The AB leg of the pattern began at the swing low of 1,160 in August 2018. It led to a rally into the August 2020 swing high of 2,013. A similar advance in price began from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615 and ended this week.

Once there is symmetry in price, a potential pivot level has been identified. It looks like that was the case here given the bearish reaction following Wednesday’s high of 2,484. Nonetheless, following the completion of a bearish retracement, gold is anticipated to continue to trend higher towards upside targets.

Recent Bearish Retracement Points to 2,495 Target

There is Fibonacci confluence area with several price levels identified around 2,487. A little further up from there is a relatively near-term target at 2,495. That price level will complete a 127.2% extended retracement of the most recent decline that began from the May 20 peak. A greater than 100% or 127.2% retracement completes at the 2,495-price level.

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