Gold markets have rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday to test the previous trendline that had been so important, only to give up those gains again.
Gold markets have rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Wednesday to reach towards the previous uptrend line that had been so important. Furthermore, not only had that area been important due to the trend line, but we also have the 50 day EMA as well as the 200 day EMA in the same area, just below the $1800 level. The fact that we gave up the gains and fell again should not be a huge surprise, as the market has struggled with this area multiple times. Looking at this chart, I think that if we can break above the $1800 level, then we could start to change the narrative.
Until that happens, I think you have to look at rallies as potential selling opportunities, especially as they have been beaten down so significantly just above. Notice all of the wicks from the candlesticks of the last couple of weeks. They all tell you the same thing, that perhaps rallying from here is probably asking a lot. To the downside, it looks as if the $1765 level has offered a significant support, so if we were to break down below there, it could open up a move down to the $1750 level, and then the $1725 level.
Gold is highly sensitive to the US dollar, so pay close attention to the US Dollar Index. If it continues to rise, that should work against the value of gold. Furthermore, there are signs of slowing inflation in the latest economic numbers, so that narrative may be going away as well. With this being the case, I do not like gold until it proves itself.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.