This morning has seen the gold market fall hard, breaking down through the $2700 level, an area that has been important on the way up as well. At this point, the market will start to focus on the Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday.
Gold markets got absolutely crushed during the overnight session as the US elections came in for a clean sweep of all three branches of government by the Republicans and the dollar just took off. That being said, we do have an interest rate decision on Thursday and while it is widely anticipated to be a 25 basis point rate cut, it’s going to be the speech afterwards that makes things interesting.
Gold is still very much in an uptrend and quite frankly, I think there are a lot of reasons to think that gold goes higher because whether you like Trump or not, the one thing you can count on is he will spend some money. Harris would have to. So really, I don’t think the longer term trajectory of gold was going to change one way or the other. The one part of the gold trade that could be unwinding a little bit is the geopolitical one because Trump is the only US president in the last 50 years not to expand conflict somewhere.
So maybe that little bit of the trade has changed, but we still have record deficits. We still have interest rates coming down around the world, at least from the central bank standpoint, and we still have central banks around the world buying gold. So clearly, I’m not a seller of this market. What I’m looking for is some type of bounce. Maybe we’ll drop to the 50 day EMA and find some buyers there. A little bit of patience here probably goes a long way.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.