The gold markets have rallied significantly during the trading week, only to give up quite a bit of the gain.
Gold markets initially tried to rally during the week, slamming into the $2000 region. However, we have seen a bit of exhaustion, and by doing so it shows signs of hesitation. If we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then we could drop back down to the lows again, near the 50-Week EMA, which is presently at the $1900 level. On the other hand, if we were to break above the top of the candlestick, it opens up the possibility of a bigger move, perhaps to the $2050 level.
Keep in mind that gold is rather choppy at the moment, and I think it is difficult to hang onto it for a longer-term position, so therefore you need to keep your position size reasonable. Interest-rate differential will continue to be the main driver of what happens with this market, as the US dollar will be highly sensitive to fluctuations against the euro and other major currencies. As the US dollar falls, that does help the gold market, but we have seen a significant amount of strength later in the week to show greenback buying.
All things being equal, I would anticipate a lot of back-and-forth range bound trading, so it’s very likely that we have the market showing more of a short-term range bound type of opportunity, so longer-term traders will have to be very cautious with their position sizing. However, breaking above the top the weekly candlestick would be a very bullish sign, and would allow traders to become a little bit more aggressive. It’s also worth noting that recently we had made a high that has held for quite some time, right around the $2100 level.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.