Gold markets have gone back and forth in the course of the week, to show a lot of choppiness as traders are essentially “confused” at the moment.
Gold markets have had a very choppy week as we continue to hang around the $1750 level, an area that’s been important more than once. Because of this, I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before some type of decision. At this point, if we break down below the weekly candlestick, then it’s likely that we drop enough to test the 200 Week EMA which is sitting right around the $1700 level.
If we break above the top of the candlestick, then we could test the $1800 level, but keep an eye on interest rates and of course the US dollar, because both have a huge negative correlation to what happens with gold. In this scenario, I think we have a situation where we are going to see an explosive move sooner or later, and of course, Jerome Powell was much more hawkish than people anticipated in Jackson Hole.
If the US dollar and rates suddenly start to spike, then that’s going to drive gold lower, at least as a knee-jerk reaction. If we were to break down below the 200 Week EMA, then we could see a bigger move to the downside. I’m not sure that we get that, but it certainly is something that you need to pay close attention to because it could kick off quite a bit of massive selling, as it opens up a major “trapdoor” in the market. I do think that would be a headline event, and probably send gold down to the $1500 level. Regardless, this is a market that is very noisy, so you also have to keep that in the back of your head as well.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.