Gold markets have initially fallen during the course of the week but found enough support at the 50-Week EMA to turn things back around.
Gold markets have initially fallen during the week to reach out to the 50-Week EMA, only to turn around and show signs of life again. Ultimately, this is a market that I think eventually will try to take off to the upside, perhaps reaching to the $1900 level. What is worth noting is that the $1900 level features several inverted hammers, at least on the daily charts. I think that is going to be a difficult area to get above, but if we do it opens up the possibility of reaching to the $1975 level.
Alternatively, if we turn around and break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to the $1800 level initially, followed by the $1750 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci currently sets. The 200-Week EMA is trying to reach that area, so that being said, I think it’s ultimately going to be the “floor in the market” if we do sell off.
Based upon the weekly candlestick, I think it’s more likely than not that we go higher in the short term, perhaps for the next week or 2. Pay close attention to the US dollar, as it does have a negative correlation, but furthermore you need to pay attention to the interest rate markets, due to the fact that the higher rates go, the more likely we will see gold fall, and of course vice versa. All things being equal, this is a market that looks like it’s trying to go higher after we got the Non-Farm Payroll announcement sending gold so much higher during the Friday session.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.