Gold (XAU) Price Forecast: Bullish or Bearish? CPI Data May Decide the Trend

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Traders Await Key U.S. Inflation Data

Gold prices climbed on Wednesday as investors sought support around $2,604.39, positioning the metal for potential upside ahead of critical U.S. inflation data. Having dipped below its 50-day moving average at $2,650.39, the market now faces technical resistance, with some traders bracing for a possible test of the support level between $2,546.86 and $2,538.50. The question remains whether current sentiment could shift from “buying the dip” to “selling the rally,” given solid resistance formed between $2,650.40 and $2,668.52.

Gold Recovers from Two-Month Low as Dollar Pauses

Gold’s modest recovery follows a recent sharp drop to its lowest level in two months, driven by profit-taking and a pause in dollar strength ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. The U.S. dollar index, having hit a six-month high, eased by 0.1%, reducing pressure on gold. The CPI, due Wednesday, could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations, potentially affecting the dollar’s strength and gold’s immediate outlook.

Analysts see medium-term value in gold, with Quantitative Commodity Research’s Peter Fertig highlighting its appeal as the Fed remains inclined toward dovish rate adjustments. Following last week’s 25-basis-point rate cut, the Fed is expected to continue easing, although expectations for a December cut have softened to a 62% likelihood, down from 70% a week prior, per the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates generally favor non-yielding assets like gold, supporting demand among long-term investors.

Fed Rate Outlook and Inflation Data in Focus

Market participants are awaiting Wednesday’s CPI report, which economists anticipate will show a monthly increase of 0.2%, potentially placing annual inflation at 2.6%. These figures, along with forthcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, jobless claims, and retail sales, will offer insights into economic resilience and inflationary pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks later in the week could provide additional cues on monetary policy direction, particularly if the CPI surprises.

The U.S. Treasury market has also reflected cautious positioning ahead of these economic data releases, with the 10-year yield slipping as investors consider the potential implications for the Fed’s rate path. Last week’s bond market saw a significant rise in yields following the U.S. elections, as fiscal policy expectations under President-elect Trump suggest higher growth—and possibly, higher inflation.

Short-Term Market Forecast

With traders bracing for the CPI’s impact on rate cut prospects, gold appears poised for volatility. If inflation trends lower than expected, it could bolster expectations for further rate cuts, lending strength to gold. Conversely, any upside surprise in CPI could lead to renewed dollar strength and pressure on gold. For now, the outlook for gold remains neutral to slightly bullish as investors weigh inflation data’s impact on Fed policy, eyeing the $2,650 level as a critical pivot for any sustained gains.