Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: All Eyes on Powell, Payrolls, and PMI This Week

Market Overview

Gold prices climbed to a new record high on Friday, closing at $3,085 per ounce, as investors rotated into precious metals amid persistent inflation concerns and heightened uncertainty over global trade policy.

The move was fueled by expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and anxiety over potential new U.S. tariffs.

“It continues to be the safe-haven demand driven by concerns around tariffs, trade, and global instability,” said Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals.

Fed Policy Outlook Remains Central to Gold’s Momentum

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—rose 0.4% in February, slightly above the 0.3% consensus and mirroring January’s print. The data, while mildly hotter, is unlikely to derail dovish expectations.

Markets are now pricing in 63 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first reduction anticipated in July, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed has kept interest rates steady so far this year after delivering three cuts in 2024, and policymakers have signaled openness to a 50-basis point cut later this year should inflation continue to cool.

Low interest rates typically boost non-yielding assets like gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.

Silver Tracks Gold, Breaks Above $34.00

Silver prices also rallied, hitting $34.13 per ounce—the highest in over a year—as the broader metals complex gained strength. Technical indicators show silver clearing resistance near $33.93, with analysts now eyeing the $35.07 zone.

Silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal positions it well amid improving global manufacturing sentiment.

Outlook Hinges on U.S. Data and Fed Commentary

Investor attention now turns to next week’s economic calendar, which includes:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday, forecast: 49.6)

• ADP Employment Report (Wednesday)

• Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday, forecast: 139K)

• Fed Chair Powell and FOMC Member Waller speeches

Markets will be closely watching for signals on whether the Fed will move more aggressively to ease policy—an outcome that could further extend gold and silver’s upward trajectory.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is pressing higher within a well-defined ascending channel, with current price action approaching the upper band. XAU/USD is trading at $3,085, steadily climbing after bouncing off the $3,059 pivot zone. The trend remains firmly bullish, supported by the 50 EMA at $3,029 and the 200 EMA at $2,948—both sloping upward. The next resistance is seen at $3,097, followed by a potential breakout toward $3,119.

A daily close above $3,097 could signal continuation, especially as price hugs the channel’s median line. On the downside, immediate support rests at $3,059, with deeper levels at $3,033 and $3,002 offering buying interest on pullbacks.

With bullish structure intact and higher lows stacking up, momentum favors buyers unless we see a break below the channel and 50 EMA. Gold remains in an uptrend within a rising channel. Bullish above $3,059, with $3,097 as the next breakout level to watch.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is pulling back after tagging resistance at $34.58, following a strong breakout from a bullish harmonic pattern. The metal remains above both the 50 EMA ($33.69) and the 200 EMA ($32.82), which continue to trend upward—supporting a constructive medium-term outlook.

Price has retreated to the $33.92–$34.00 zone, a key former resistance now acting as immediate support. If bulls hold this level, the uptrend may resume, targeting a retest of $34.58 and a potential extension toward $35.07.

Failure to hold above $33.92 could open room for a pullback toward $33.51. The broader harmonic structure and breakout remain intact for now, and as long as price holds above the EMAs, the bullish bias is favored.

Watch for a rebound confirmation before re-entering long. Silver is in pullback mode after a breakout. Bullish above $33.92; a bounce here could target $34.58 again. Below this, watch $33.51 for next support.