Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Metals Hold Ground as CPI, FOMC Loom

Market Overview

Gold and silver prices gained ground during Tuesday’s Asian session, as investors rotated into safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded from a four-week low near $2,956, trading around $3,012 and ending a three-day decline. Silver (XAG/USD) hit an intraday high of $30.11 before easing slightly—still posting notable gains.

The bounce followed fresh U.S. tariff announcements, which sparked fears of a prolonged global trade war and triggered demand for traditional hedges like bullion.

“The market is re-pricing risk in light of potential trade disruptions,” said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics. “This uncertainty is clearly benefiting bullion.”

Rate Cut Bets Weigh on Dollar, Boost Metals

Markets are now pricing in up to four Fed rate cuts in 2025, with the first expected as early as June. This has pressured the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, both of which typically move inversely to gold and silver.

Silver’s breakout above $30 is especially noteworthy, indicating broad-based support for precious metals amid global uncertainty.

Fed Messaging Cools the Rally

Despite bullish sentiment, Fed officials remain cautious. Governor Adriana Kugler reiterated the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that persistent trade friction could reignite inflation—potentially complicating the case for aggressive easing.

Investors now look to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data to gauge the Fed’s policy path.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating near $3,012 with resistance at $3,058, while silver trades just below $30.56. Both metals need to reclaim key levels to sustain bullish momentum.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of stabilization after last week’s steep drop from its all-time high near $3,165. Prices are currently hovering around $3,012, finding support above the 200 EMA at $2,991.

This level previously triggered a bounce, hinting at buyer interest around the $2,957–$2,980 zone. That said, the broader structure remains vulnerable unless gold reclaims the 50 EMA at $3,058, which now marks key overhead resistance.

The previous breakdown below the rising channel indicates a short-term shift in trend, and while the recovery off the $2,957 low is encouraging, the rebound lacks momentum for now. If bulls can drive price above $3,058, that would open the path toward retesting $3,101.

But failure to do so could keep gold stuck in a consolidation phase or trigger another test of support. For now, price is caught in a tug-of-war between long-term strength and short-term caution.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trying to stabilize after last week’s sharp slide, currently trading near $30.13. The price is hovering just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $29.70, following a bounce from the $28.30 low.

That initial rebound looked strong but has since run into consolidation just below the $30.56 resistance area—the 38.2% Fib retracement level from the recent peak at $34.22. If silver can push through $30.56, the next technical targets lie at $31.26 and $31.96.

However, the short-term structure still leans bearish. The 50 EMA is declining and sits around $32.05, while the 200 EMA is not far behind at $32.60—both above current price, signaling continued pressure.

Unless silver reclaims those key moving averages, rallies may remain corrective. A break below $29.70 could open the door to a retest of $28.30.