Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Keep Prices in Check

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) remains near $2,900 mark, despite mild gains driven by safe-haven demand and a weakening U.S. dollar. Investors are growing cautious over President Trump’s trade policies, fearing they could slow global economic growth. Buying interest emerged around $2,880, as uncertainty over tariffs and Federal Reserve policy kept traders on edge.

The U.S. labor market’s weakness further reinforced rate-cut expectations. February’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by just 151,000, missing the forecast of 160,000. January’s job growth was also revised down to 125,000 from 143,000, raising concerns about economic slowdown.

Despite soft data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious, signaling no immediate need for policy changes. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed this view, stating that while uncertainty is rising, the economy does not yet justify aggressive monetary easing.

Silver Holds Near $32.10 as Traders Eye Fed Policy

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $32, after reaching an intraday high of $32.21, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and a weaker U.S. dollar. However, concerns about slowing global demand, particularly from China, have capped gains.

Traders are now pricing in a 75 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2025, with a June cut fully anticipated, according to LSEG data. Lower rates typically support silver, making it more attractive as a non-yielding asset. However, demand concerns from major economies could limit upside potential.

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.7% year-over-year in February, marking the first deflationary trend since January 2024. This signals weak consumer spending in the world’s second-largest economy, potentially dampening demand for industrial metals like silver.

Trade Tensions and Economic Slowdown Add to Market Volatility

The U.S. announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on Wednesday, despite strong opposition from domestic businesses. In retaliation, China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, a 25% levy on pork and seafood, and additional tariffs on key agricultural products.

With rising global trade tensions and China’s slowing economy, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact. However, weaker Chinese demand for precious metals could limit upside momentum.

Looking ahead, gold and silver traders will be closely watching U.S. inflation data. Higher-than-expected inflation could delay Fed rate cuts, pressuring gold. Meanwhile, softer inflation figures would reinforce monetary easing expectations, making gold and silver more attractive in the coming months.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold stays below $2,900, facing resistance at $2,903. A break above targets $2,930, while failure to hold $2,880 may trigger declines. Silver struggles near $32.04, with resistance at $32.23. A breakout eyes $32.67, but weakness below $31.80 risks further losses.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading at $2,894.81, down a modest 0.01%, as it struggles to reclaim the $2,900 pivot point. The 50-day EMA at $2,903.83 is acting as short-term resistance, reinforcing bearish pressure below this level.

If gold breaks above $2,900, we could see a move toward $2,930.61, with a further push targeting $2,954.75.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $2,880.20, and a break below could open the door to $2,859.91. The broader trend remains bearish below $2,900, but if bulls regain control, momentum could shift.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.04, down 0.05%, as it struggles beneath the $32.23 pivot point. A downward channel continues to weigh on prices, keeping bullish attempts in check. The 50-day EMA at $32.26 is acting as immediate resistance, aligning closely with the pivot level. If silver manages to break above $32.23, a test of $32.67 and $33.02 could follow.

On the downside, support at $31.80 remains critical—losing this level could extend losses toward $31.47. The 200-day EMA at $32.08 suggests longer-term stability, but near-term momentum remains bearish. A decisive break outside this downward channel will be key in determining silver’s next move.