Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Slips as Dollar Gains Before U.S. GDP and Inflation Data

Gold Slips as Dollar Firms and Market Awaits Key U.S. Economic Reports

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as traders positioned ahead of major U.S. economic data and reacted to a stronger dollar supported by easing trade tensions. After surging to a record high of $3,500.20 last week, bullion is now consolidating gains, with immediate focus on U.S. GDP and inflation figures that could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.

At 11:24 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3278.42, down $38.73 or -1.17%.

Dollar Strengthens on Trade Optimism and End-of-Month Rebalancing

The dollar index climbed 0.2%, driven by positive signals from U.S. trade policy and typical month-end demand. President Trump signed executive orders on Tuesday aimed at easing the burden of auto tariffs, while administration officials confirmed a trade deal has been reached with at least one foreign partner.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also suggested additional agreements with countries like India and South Korea are underway. The improved outlook helped the greenback recover ground, pressuring gold by increasing its cost in other currencies.

Gold Faces Pressure from Trade Relief, But Risk Appetite Remains Fragile

Although trade tensions have eased, the gold market has not broken down. China’s move to suspend tariffs on several U.S. goods, including ethane and some semiconductor products, signaled softening positions on both sides. However, the limited downside in gold suggests markets remain cautious, with investors still using the metal as a hedge against policy uncertainty and broader economic weakness.

U.S. Economic Data Could Shift Fed Expectations

Traders are watching for today’s U.S. GDP report, expected to show zero growth, and the March PCE inflation reading forecast at 2.2%. These data points are crucial for shaping Fed policy expectations. Weaker readings could support gold by pushing yields and the dollar lower, while stronger numbers might raise rate hike bets, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above Key Support Zone

Technically, gold is moving between two key ranges. The short-term range from $2956.56 to $3500.20 highlights support at $3228.38 to $3164.23. This zone is likely to attract buyers, as it marks a key retracement area in the ongoing uptrend. If broken, downside could extend to the 50-day moving average at $3074.64.

On the upside, resistance sits at $3380.20, and a firm break above this level could pave the way back to $3500.20. Until the data shifts sentiment decisively, gold remains in consolidation with a bullish undertone, supported by technical levels and macro uncertainty.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.