Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Metals Climb on Tariff Fears, CPI in Focus

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) prices moved back above the critical $3,000 mark on Wednesday, buoyed by growing concerns over a global economic slowdown and anticipation of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yellow metal had briefly dipped after failing to breach resistance near $3,023 earlier in the week, but renewed demand for safe-haven assets amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty has helped reverse course.

Contributing to gold’s momentum is continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. The DXY index has lost traction as traders increasingly expect a dovish shift from the Fed.

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 60% probability of a rate cut as early as May, with markets pricing in up to five cuts by year-end. This softening stance—despite cautious remarks from Fed officials—has reduced real yields and increased the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like gold.

Silver Tracks Gold, Eyes Key $30 Resistance

Silver (XAG/USD) has mirrored gold’s rally, climbing to an intraday high of $29.95 before settling slightly below the psychological $30 barrier. A weaker U.S. dollar, growing recession fears, and spillover demand from gold have all fueled silver’s ascent.

As global trade tensions intensify, investors are rotating into precious metals as a hedge against both inflation and volatility in risk assets.

Silver remains technically supported, with bullish sentiment likely to persist as long as the Fed maintains a dovish tone and macroeconomic risks remain elevated.

Tariff Surge, Bond Selloff Support Bullish Metals Outlook

The White House’s confirmation of sweeping 104% tariffs on Chinese imports has rattled markets, stoking fears of a drawn-out trade conflict. Bond markets responded with a sharp selloff amid speculation that China may reduce U.S. Treasury holdings.

The pressure on sovereign debt and heightened geopolitical uncertainty have further reinforced the case for owning hard assets.

With the U.S. CPI due Thursday and PPI on Friday, markets are bracing for new inflation signals. Until then, gold’s support above $3,000 appears firm, as the metal continues to benefit from its traditional role as a financial safe haven amid rising global risk.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above $3,000 with support near $2,998, eyeing a break above $3,046. Silver tests $30, but remains capped by key EMAs. Both metals lean bullish amid Fed-driven optimism.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is trading around $3,020, showing signs of bullish recovery after bouncing from the 200 EMA near $2,992. The metal has reclaimed the key pivot at $2,998 and is now testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2,998, with the next resistance at $3,024. Immediate support lies at $2,998, followed by the recent low near $2,956.

The 50 EMA is trending downward at $3,045, acting as the next key resistance to overcome. A clean break above $3,046 would open the door to $3,067 and potentially $3,106.

RSI remains neutral, suggesting room for upward movement. Until $3,046 is breached, price action may stay choppy—but bulls appear to be slowly regaining control.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is trading near $29.98 after bouncing from support at $29.07. While the price remains below the 50 EMA at $31.59 and the 200 EMA at $32.44, bulls are attempting to reclaim higher levels following a sharp sell-off from the $34.22 peak. The current pivot zone stands at $29.70—above which momentum may begin to tilt in favor of buyers.

Immediate resistance lies at $30.56 (38.2% Fibonacci), followed by $31.26. On the downside, $29.07 is the key level to hold to avoid a deeper drop toward $28.30.

With silver trading below key moving averages and the Fib midpoint at $31.26, the broader trend remains cautious—but bulls may find room to test resistance if $29.70 holds.