Is Ethereum Still on Track for a Bullish Move?

The Price Action Has So Far Unfolded as Anticipated

Over the past several weeks, I have kept you abreast on my short-term Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count (based on a daily-resolution chart) for Ethereum (ETH). I was looking for

• a top at $2100+/-100 (see here). We got $2028.
• then a drop to $1400+/-100 (see here). We got $1422 so far.
• and, last week, a bounce to $1750-1800, and then the 2nd leg lower to $1200+/-100 (see here). We got $1722 and then a drop to $1422 so far.

I review these forecasts not to pound myself on the chest, as I know I am wrong till proven right, but to verify that Ethereum’s price action is still following along an IMHO ultimately bullish path that can be rather accurately and reliably forecasted. So far, so good, and I see no reason to change my perspective unless ETH drops below $1000.

There are now enough moves/waves to suggest the correction from the August 14 high is complete. But the Bulls must push Ethereum’s price back above the $1722 bounce high. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Ethereum daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

The Correction From the August 14 High Could Be Complete

Namely, corrections comprise three waves (a-b-c), and since the August 14 high, that is what we got so far. Of course, corrections can become more complex, i.e., double or triple corrective patterns, but for now, we cannot know if that will happen or not. Thus, with the current data, I know the Bulls must push the price back above last week’s $1722 bounce high (green arrow).

That then opens the door to at least a retest of the August 14 high and most likely the red arrow/path to $3000+. Conversely, the Bears want to drop the price below yesterday’s low as that opens the door for a subdividing green wave-c down to as low as $1050-1000. That is still a good retrace of the leading diagonal (red) wave-i/a. But below $1000, odds increase significantly for a move to triple digits.

For now, the first order for the Bulls is to close the price back above the 50-day simple moving average (blue line) as that SMA has been resistance over the last two days. Above it opens the door to $1700+. Thus, the general path laid out a month ago is still unfolding as anticipated, and my premium crypto trading members benefit from that forecast tremendously. So, I see no reason to change my perspective until ETH breaks below $1000.