Markets Brace for Retail, Jobs Data This Week Under Weight of Tariff Risks

Light Fed Schedule Places Spotlight on Economic Data

This week’s U.S. economic calendar is relatively sparse in terms of Federal Reserve commentary, with only four officials slated to speak. Instead, traders will be watching key consumer and labor data closely, especially March retail sales and weekly jobless claims, as signs point to a slowing consumer and potential fallout from tariff policies. A heavy earnings slate featuring top banks, healthcare firms, and tech names will also steer sentiment.

Retail Sales to Test Resilience of Consumer Spending

Wednesday’s retail sales report will provide a crucial look at consumer activity in March, with spending trends under scrutiny following weakness earlier in the year. UBS Chief Strategist Bhanu Baweja warns that the U.S. consumer is “showing clear signs of fatigue,” noting that fiscal stimulus and immigration, two previous growth supports, have faded. Baweja also flagged risks to corporate earnings, which he says could fall far below prior expectations of 13% growth. With consumption making up as much as 70% of U.S. GDP, any softness in Wednesday’s retail print could spark a reassessment of growth assumptions.

Initial Jobless Claims Now in the Spotlight

Though typically considered a lower-tier release, Thursday’s jobless claims data will attract unusual attention as markets look for any indication of labor market cooling. For the week ending April 5, initial claims held steady at 223,000, while continuing claims fell by 43,000. With macro uncertainty and tariff-related headwinds on the radar, traders are bracing for signs that employers are beginning to scale back hiring.

Earnings From Financials, Tech, and Healthcare to Drive Sentiment

Several major earnings reports could set the tone for risk assets this week. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, and M&T Bank are among the financials releasing results. Investors will listen for comments on credit demand and margin pressure.

Netflix’s Thursday report is expected to be the first without subscriber data, while UnitedHealth Group’s release will gauge healthcare sector stability. TSMC’s earnings will be watched for clues on global semiconductor demand.

Housing Starts, Builder Sentiment May Highlight Supply Constraints

Thursday’s housing starts data and Wednesday’s homebuilder confidence index will offer insights into supply-side housing market challenges. Builders face higher input costs from tariffs, and inventory shortages remain a constraint for affordability.

Market Forecast: Bearish Bias with Earnings and Data Risks

Traders should maintain a cautious stance this week. Retail sales could confirm deteriorating consumer strength, and any surprise uptick in jobless claims may raise concerns about labor market softness. With earnings season ramping up and macro risks elevated, short-term market sentiment leans bearish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.