Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Nvidia’s AI Guidance Today to Test Market Sentiment

S&P 500 Futures Rise Amid Nvidia Earnings Anticipation

S&P 500 futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings, which could significantly impact market sentiment. This follows a mixed session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rising close to 0.2%, while the Dow gained just 0.02%. Nvidia’s results are highly anticipated, and broader market factors also influenced the day’s trading.

At 11:41 GMT, Dow futures are trading 41365.00, up 9.00 or +0.02%. S&P 500 Index futures are at 5643.75, down 1.00 or -0.02% and Nasdaq 100 Index futures are trading 19642.50, down 11.25 or -0.06%.

Nvidia’s Earnings Expected to Influence Market Direction

Nvidia, whose stock has surged 159% this year, is set to report its earnings after the market close. Analysts expect strong results, with forecasts of a 112% year-over-year increase in sales and a 139% rise in earnings per share. Nvidia’s performance is critical given its 6.6% weighting in the S&P 500, making it a key driver of this year’s tech-led rally. However, beyond the immediate earnings, investors are eagerly watching the company’s guidance on AI demand and the rollout of its Blackwell chips, which could set the tone for tech stocks in the near term.

Retail and Semiconductor Sectors Show Mixed Results

In other sectors, Nordstrom shares rose 7% after surpassing earnings expectations, driven by strong full-price sales. Semiconductor company Ambarella also saw its stock jump nearly 20% on upbeat third-quarter revenue guidance. However, PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein, fell over 7% due to a weaker outlook, highlighting ongoing challenges in the retail sector.

Foot Locker also struggled, with shares dropping over 5% after reporting disappointing second-quarter results, despite showing same-store sales growth for the first time in six quarters.

Global Markets and Sector Trends Offer Mixed Signals

Lego reported a 13% revenue increase in the first half of the year, driven by strong demand across its product lines and continued expansion in China. However, the broader toy industry faced challenges, with publicly traded rivals Mattel and Hasbro reporting declines in sales. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler has advised investors to remain cautious, noting that the low trading volume ahead of Labor Day could heighten market volatility, especially with key earnings reports due this week.

Cautious Market Outlook as Key Earnings Loom

Nvidia’s earnings are expected to be a major driver of market direction, particularly for the tech sector. However, mixed results across other industries suggest a more complex market landscape. Investors should remain cautious, monitoring developments in retail and global consumer sectors, alongside key inflation data and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy, to gauge the broader economic outlook.

Technical Analysis

The early price action indicates that traders have hit the buy/sell pause button as they await Nvidia’s after-market earnings report. Option pricing suggests traders anticipate tremendous volatility after the release of the numbers. However, there is a strong bias to the upside because of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) of a bullish breakout.

Meanwhile, the E-mini S&P 500 Index suggests a more balance approach with the bulls eyeing a test of the record high at 5721.25 and the bears hoping to breach the 50-day moving average support at 5540.20.