Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Tech Stocks Lead Rebound on Tariff Relief Today

Tech-Led Stock Futures Rally on Temporary U.S. Tariff Relief

U.S. stock futures rose sharply Monday following President Donald Trump’s surprise decision to exempt smartphones, semiconductors, and other key tech components from new “reciprocal” tariffs. The move provided a strong early lift to tech shares, although uncertainty remains over the duration of the relief.

Tariff Exemption Sparks Tech Rebound

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2% (+474 points), while the S&P 500 gained 1.6%. Nasdaq-100 futures surged 2.1%, reflecting outsized strength in tech. Apple jumped over 5% premarket, while Nvidia rose more than 3%, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) climbed over 2%.

The exemptions, confirmed late Friday by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, helped ease pressure on the “Magnificent Seven” names that had been sliding since the tariff rollout earlier this month.

However, comments from Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday indicated the exclusions may be temporary, as the items are now being moved to a different tariff classification under the “20% Fentanyl Tariffs.”

Volatility Persists Despite Reprieve

Last week delivered one of the most volatile stretches for equities this year. The CBOE Volatility Index spiked above 50 on Thursday, erasing much of the prior day’s rally—when Trump announced a 90-day delay on some new tariffs, triggering the third-largest one-day gain in U.S. stocks since WWII.

Despite that rebound, the major indexes remain in negative territory since the original tariff announcement. The S&P 500 is down 5.4%, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 5%, and the Dow is off 4.8%. Apple alone shed nearly $640 billion in market cap across just three sessions.

Citi Downgrades U.S. Equities on Valuation Risks

Citigroup downgraded U.S. equities to neutral, warning that valuations remain elevated and earnings downgrades are still to come. The firm pointed to tariff risks, geopolitical concerns, and investor reallocations as reasons to diversify away from U.S. markets. Citi highlighted Japan and Europe as more attractive due to lower valuations and more conservative earnings expectations.

Despite short-term potential for tech rebounds, Citi noted cracks in U.S. equity strength are forming, reinforced by a weaker dollar and rising Treasury yields. The Magnificent Seven may see short-term relief, but broader U.S. equity outlooks remain under pressure.

Market Forecast: Cautiously Bearish

While Monday’s futures surge suggests a short-term relief rally, uncertainty over tariff permanence and valuation concerns keep the broader outlook bearish.

Traders should remain alert to further earnings downgrades and macro risks, particularly as U.S. equities continue to price in more optimistic earnings than global peers.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.