Investors witnessed a surge in stock market activity on Friday following the release of U.S. jobs data. This data, characterized by strong job growth but rising unemployment, spurred expectations that the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates around mid-year. The reaction in the bond market was also notable, with U.S. Treasury yields dropping to their lowest in a month.
At 15:58 GMT, the Dow is trading 38917.87, up 126.52 or 0.33%. The S&P 500 Index is at 5184.36, up 27.00 or +0.52% and the Nasdaq Composite is trading 16405.45, up 132.07 or +0.81%.
The February jobs report presented a complex picture: a robust addition of 275,000 jobs exceeded the forecast of 198,000, suggesting a still-vibrant economy. However, the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%, and wage growth was less than anticipated, signaling potential easing of inflation pressures. This blend of data points is critical for the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on interest rate adjustments.
The stock market responded positively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new records and the Dow Jones also climbing. Key movers in the market included Nvidia, which soared over 17% due to its strong position in artificial intelligence. Apple also saw an upturn, ending a long losing streak. In contrast, some technology firms like Tesla and Alphabet experienced declines, reflecting diverse responses within the sector.
Global monetary policy also influenced markets. Both the U.S. and European central banks hinted at potential interest rate reductions by summer. The European Central Bank’s indication of a possible spring rate cut reinforced this trend, affecting markets across the Atlantic.
Considering the latest employment data, the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the European Central Bank’s stance, the market sentiment appears positive. The stock market’s performance, coupled with these economic indicators, points towards a bullish outlook in the short term. Investors will likely pay close attention to upcoming economic reports, particularly inflation data, to further assess market direction.
The E-mini S&P 500 Index’s strong up trend continued on Friday with another record high. Higher-tops and higher-bottoms make an uptrend and with no price level resistance at all-time highs, traders should focus on the chart pattern for any signs of weakness.
The best sign of a top will be a higher-high and a lower close, better known as a closing price reversal top. This will be the first sign of weakness, while a trade through 5123.00 will change the short-term trend to down.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.