Nasdaq 100: Will Apple and Meta Lead a Relief Rally After April 2 Tariff Clarity?

Market May Find Footing as Tariff Clarity Approaches

U.S. equities are closing out a rough March with the S&P 500 down over 6% and the Nasdaq shedding more than 8%—their worst monthly performance since 2022.

Uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy has fueled fears of inflation and global growth friction. But with “Liberation Day” set for April 2, traders are watching for policy clarity that could unlock a broad-based rebound, especially in high-quality tech names that have taken a disproportionate hit.

Bearish Sentiment Reaches Contrarian Levels

The AAII investor sentiment survey shows over 50% of participants expecting a decline in stocks—marking the third time in history bearish sentiment has stayed above that level for five straight weeks. Historically, such pessimism has preceded strong market rallies.

As Nationwide’s Mark Hackett notes, prior instances of this sentiment stretch have delivered double-digit returns over the following 6–12 months. The current disconnect between fear and fundamentals may offer value for traders targeting oversold sectors.

Seasonality Offers Technical Tailwind

April has historically been one of the best-performing months for U.S. equities, particularly in post-election years. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged strong gains in April, with seasonality supporting a technical recovery. If policy noise subsides, the setup could favor a mean-reversion bounce—particularly in heavily sold-off Nasdaq components like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Adobe, all of which remain fundamentally strong despite recent declines.

Tariff Strategy Appears More Targeted Than Feared

Initial anxiety over sweeping tariffs has faded as the administration signals a narrower, more negotiated approach. The so-called “dirty 15” list focuses on countries with persistent trade imbalances, and carve-outs under the USMCA suggest a strategy built on leverage rather than blanket penalties. A less inflationary outcome could preserve space for Federal Reserve rate cuts—another potential tailwind for equities.

Quarter-End Flows May Favor Defensive Quality

Institutional “window dressing” could lead to capital rotation into defensive, dividend-rich names. Companies like PepsiCo, Verizon, and General Mills, which have held up during the selloff, may benefit from that rebalancing.

Some of the Nasdaq’s mega-cap defensives—particularly Apple and Meta—also look oversold on a short-term basis and could attract positioning ahead of earnings season.

Outlook: Policy Clarity Could Trigger Relief Rally

With bearish sentiment stretched, April’s seasonal strength in play, and tariff fears possibly overstated, April 2 may mark a psychological turning point.

Traders looking for asymmetric upside may find opportunity in Nasdaq leaders trading well below recent highs. If policy signals confirm a lighter-than-feared tariff regime, the setup favors a rebound led by resilient, large-cap tech and staples.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.