Technology stocks, which have driven much of this year’s market gains, took a hit Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s key monetary policy decision. Traders are now anticipating a significant cut in borrowing costs, but uncertainty about the exact move weighed heavily on the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500. Key chip stocks, like Nvidia and Broadcom, led the decline, dragging the semiconductor index down by 1.7%.
At 15:41 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading 41478.06, up 84.28 or +0.20%. The S&P 500 Index is at 5613.03, down 12.99 or -0.23% and the Nasdaq is trading 17532.23, down 151.75 or -0.86%.
While the tech sector stumbled, other sectors posted gains. The energy sector advanced 0.63%, with financials also rising by 0.69%. Banks and financial companies stand to benefit from easing interest rates, while energy stocks found support from stable oil prices. In contrast, consumer discretionary and technology sectors saw declines, with tech falling over 1% as interest rate uncertainty weighed on valuations.
Despite widespread losses in the semiconductor space, Intel stood out, rising 2.7% after securing a $3.5 billion federal grant to produce semiconductors for the U.S. Department of Defense. This development provided a rare bright spot in the otherwise troubled chip sector. Nvidia, Broadcom, and Qualcomm all faced notable losses, with traders reacting to concerns about how potential rate cuts could impact these rate-sensitive companies.
Investor attention is firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, with a growing belief that a 50-basis-point rate cut is on the horizon. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 61% probability of such a move, up from 30% a week ago. A larger-than-expected cut could be a double-edged sword, signaling that the Fed sees significant cooling in the economy, which could stoke recession fears. However, many prominent investors, like CFRA’s Sam Stovall, argue that a more aggressive cut is necessary to keep the economy on track.
As the Fed decision approaches, traders should brace for potential volatility. A larger-than-expected cut could breathe new life into tech stocks and the broader market, but it may also raise concerns about underlying economic weakness. The near-term outlook remains uncertain, with the size of the rate cut likely to dictate market direction in the days ahead. For now, investors remain cautiously optimistic but wary of potential downside risks.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.