As the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 waver, investors eagerly await the Fed's next move, which may set the tone for U.S. markets for the remainder of 2023.
As the trading week kicks off, market participants are buckling up for a triple-header of key events that could sway market sentiment in profound ways. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, the release of the October jobs report, and a slew of earnings announcements led by Apple are set to dominate the headlines.
With interest rates surging and acting as the primary driver behind the recent market correction, all eyes will be on the Fed this Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady. The ongoing market volatility has traders fervently hoping that the central bank will signal a pause in its rate-hiking cycle, at least for the remainder of 2023. Concurrently, the 10-year Treasury yield has retreated slightly to around 4.9% after briefly breaching the 5% mark last week.
McDonald’s and SoFi Technologies took center stage in pre-market trading, each posting robust earnings that beat expectations. McDonald’s shares popped 2.8% after a successful third quarter, driven by price increases that boosted U.S. same-store sales by 8.1%. SoFi, on the other hand, saw its shares leap by 6.1% following a strong revenue beat and an upward revision of its full-year outlook.
Gold miners are on track for their best month since March, buoyed by elevated gold prices. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) gained 8.66% month-to-date, its highest level since a 17.59% surge back in March. Companies like New Gold, Gold Fields, and Harmony Gold have led the pack, all posting monthly gains of around 25% or more.
Considering the blend of key economic and corporate events, as well as the prevailing market conditions, the short-term outlook for the U.S. markets appears to be cautiously optimistic.
Investors are hoping for a Fed decision that might quell rate hike fears, along with a jobs report that could provide the central bank with enough cover to maintain its current policy stance.
Therefore, the market sentiment for the week could lean bullish, barring any unexpected developments.
The current daily price of the S&P 500 Index sits at 4149.21, below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are at 4357.08 and 4241.06, respectively. This suggests a bearish momentum in the near term and might also be indicative of a longer-term downtrend.
Minor support is established at 4050.56, not far from the current price, and could act as a floor in the short term.
Meanwhile, minor and main resistance levels are found at 4197.68 and 4261.72, and breaking above these could signal a potential reversal.
With the current price below both key moving averages and closer to the minor support, the prevailing market sentiment leans bearish.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.