Nasdaq, S&P 500 investors are shifting to a bearish stance, raising cash levels to 5.3% amid a volatile earnings season and rising Treasury yields.
Wall Street had a turbulent day as corporate earnings reports stirred mixed emotions, while Treasury yields soared to levels not seen in over a decade. At close, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all in the red, each declining by 0.5%, 0.7%, and 0.8%, respectively.
J.B. Hunt, United Airlines, and Morgan Stanley faced harsh selloffs due to disappointing earnings or weak outlooks, while Procter & Gamble rode a 3% stock uptick on strong quarterly performance. Morgan Stanley’s shares plunged by 6.4%, marking its worst day since June 2020. Contrarily, Procter & Gamble’s stock surged, benefiting from robust earnings that exceeded market expectations.
Investors couldn’t ignore the elephant in the room: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield spiked more than 7 basis points, crossing the 4.9% threshold for the first time since 2007. This uptick applies significant pressure on equities, especially growth-oriented tech stocks, as higher yields could dampen borrowing and investment.
Adding to the market’s unease, chipmakers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices faced losses for a second consecutive day following the U.S. government’s tightening of export restrictions on AI chips to China. This geopolitical strain is injecting further volatility into the technology sector.
Investors are bracing for more volatility as earnings season unfolds and Treasury yields climb. Tech giants Tesla and Netflix report after the closing bell.
A Bank of America survey shows investors turning bearish, with cash levels rising to 5.3% from 4.9% last month. Given the mixed earnings reports and rising yields, the short-term outlook leans bearish.
The current daily price of the Nasdaq 100 Index stands at 15019.91, closely aligning with its 50-day moving average of 15049.93. This suggests the index is neither significantly overextended nor undervalued in the short term.
However, when we look at the 200-day moving average of 13806.86, the index is trading considerably above this level, indicating a strong bullish trend over a longer time frame.
The proximity of the current price to the 50-day moving average combined with its distance from the 200-day moving average suggests the prevailing market sentiment is cautiously bullish.
Trader reaction to the 50-day moving average sets the tone.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.