NASDAQ Index, SP500, Dow Jones Forecasts: Central Banks and CPI Data Steer Markets

Key Insights

• Recent strong U.S. payrolls data shifts investor focus, affecting rate cut hopes and impacting the NASDAQ, SP500, and Dow.
• Key central bank decisions and U.S. inflation data this week crucial for US indices.
• Fed’s expected rate hold and Chair Powell’s press conference to significantly influence stocks.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

This week’s financial markets are marked by caution as investors anticipate key central bank meetings and U.S. inflation data, potentially impacting rate cut expectations for early next year. Recent strong U.S. payrolls data has tempered hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, though a May cut remains a possibility.

The Fed is expected to maintain rates at 5.25-5.50% in its upcoming meeting, with a focus on future rate projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s insights. November’s U.S. consumer price report, due on Tuesday, is predicted to show an unchanged headline rate and a 0.3% core increase.

This data, alongside central bank meetings from the ECB, BoE, Norges Bank, and the SNB, is influencing market sentiments. The ECB is expected to cut rates early, while the BoE is likely to resist market expectations of cuts in the first half of 2024.

Investors’ cautious approach is reflected in minor declines in Asian and European stock indices and a subdued start forecasted for the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow.

SPX SP500 Prices Forecast

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is witnessing a subtle yet positive shift in its technical outlook. Currently trading at 4604.36, up by 0.41%, the index is navigating through key levels of resistance and support that define its short-term trajectory.

The pivot point at $4,550 plays a crucial role in determining the index’s direction, with immediate resistance observed at $4,611 and further barriers at $4,694 and $4,765. On the downside, immediate support is established at $4,494, extending to $4,426 and $4,352.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.00 veers towards overbought conditions, suggesting a heightened bullish sentiment in the market.

Overall, the SPX displays a bullish trend above the $4,600 mark. The upcoming sessions are expected to test the resilience of this trend, with a focus on whether the index can sustain its momentum to challenge the higher resistance levels.

Dow Prices Forecast

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) presents a nuanced picture in its recent market performance. Slightly down by 0.04%, the DJIA is currently positioned at 36243.8, hovering near the day’s pivot point of $36,303. The index faces immediate resistance at $36,526, with subsequent barriers at $36,688 and $36,912. These levels could serve as significant thresholds in the DJIA’s path to further gains.

On the downside, support levels are established at $35,951, $35,649, and $35,264. These figures could play a pivotal role in stabilizing the index in case of any downturns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.00, leaning towards a bullish sentiment without reaching overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 2.69, exceeding the signal line at 58, hints at a potential bullish trend.

A critical observation in the DJIA’s chart is the ascending triangle pattern offering resistance at $36,300. Typically, an upside breakout from this pattern suggests a bullish momentum. Thus, a sustained movement above the $36,300 level could indicate a shift towards a bullish trend.

In conclusion, the Dow Jones exhibits a bullish trend above the $36,300 mark, suggesting the potential for testing higher resistance levels in the coming sessions.

NASDAQ Prices Forecast