Natural Gas and Oil Analysis: UK Oil Dips to $76.65, Geopolitical Tensions Impact Prices

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Published: Jan 8, 2024, 12:51 GMT+00:00

Amid Saudi cuts and OPEC output increase, USOIL and UKOIL decline, impacting the broader energy market including Natural Gas.

In this article:

Natural Gas

-3.81%

WTI Oil

+0.40%

Brent Oil

+0.86%

Key Insights

Oil prices drop over 3%, Saudi cuts and OPEC output rise.
Natural Gas decreases by 3.78%, bearish trend below $2.80.
US Oil falls to $71.69, technicals suggest bearish outlook.
UK Oil at $76.68, faces resistance at $79.94.

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Oil prices fell by over 3% on Monday, influenced by Saudi Arabia’s price cuts and a rise in OPEC output from Iraq, Angola, and Nigeria, countering concerns from Middle East tensions. This decline in USOIL and UKOIL follows a previous week’s 2% increase due to geopolitical risks, including attacks in the Red Sea.

Market analysis note a mix of bearish market fundamentals and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, suggesting limited downside due to ongoing Middle East conflicts. This market trend is affecting USOIL, UKOIL, and Natural Gas, with the latter also impacted by Libya’s oilfield disruptions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas Chart

On Monday, January 8, Natural Gas (NG) displayed a pronounced downturn in the commodities market, closing at $2.71, a decrease of 3.78%.
The technical landscape for NG is defined by a pivot point at $2.77, setting the stage for future price movements.

Resistance levels are marked at $2.86, $2.99, and $3.07, indicating potential barriers to upward price trends. Conversely, support levels are identified at $2.62, $2.48, and $2.35, which may offer a foundation for price stabilization in the face of downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for NG is currently at 55, suggesting a slightly bullish market sentiment. However, NG’s price trajectory below the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2.61 signals a short-term bearish trend.

Chart analysis shows an upward channel extending resistance at the $2.80 mark.The closure of a bearish engulfing candle under this trendline indicates a potential shift towards selling, with NG possibly targeting $2.60 as an initial objective.

In summary, the near-term outlook for Natural Gas is tilted towards bearish, particularly if prices remain below the $2.80 threshold.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

On Monday, January 8, US Oil witnessed a notable decline in the market, trading at $71.69, down by 3.01%. This movement in oil prices is a critical indicator of the ongoing fluctuations in the energy sector.

The technical framework for US Oil outlines a pivot point at $72.92, with immediate resistance levels observed at $74.20, $76.11, and $78.02. These levels could potentially cap any upward momentum. Conversely, the support levels are established at $71.04, followed by $69.21 and $67.67, which might provide a foundation for price stabilization.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for US Oil is at 41, indicating a bearish sentiment in the current market. Additionally, the price of US Oil is below the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $72.77, further suggesting a short-term bearish trend.

Chart analysis reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, typically indicative of a neutral market stance, supporting US Oil around $70. This pattern suggests a potential breakout in either direction, influenced by market demand and supply dynamics. For the moment, the 50 EMA indicates a selling trend below $72.75.

In summary, the immediate outlook for US Oil appears bearish, especially if prices stay below the $72.75 mark.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL Price Chart

UK Oil (Brent Crude) is currently experiencing a downturn, trading at $76.68, marking a significant 2.78% decline. The pivot point for UK Oil stands at $77.99, a crucial level for understanding its short-term direction.

Resistance levels are observed at $79.94, $81.51, and $83.06, indicating potential hurdles for a recovery in prices. Conversely, support levels at $75.90, $74.69, and $72.94 provide essential cushions against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for UK Oil is at 38, suggesting a bearish sentiment without being in the oversold territory. This indicates potential for further downward movement. Additionally, UK Oil’s current price is below its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $78.06, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.

A symmetrical triangle pattern is observed, providing support around the $75 level with resistance near $80. This pattern typically suggests a neutral bias, with a possibility of breaking out in either direction based on market demand and supply dynamics.

Currently, the 50 EMA suggests a bearish stance below $77.95.
In summary, the technical outlook for UK Oil remains bearish below the $78 mark.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.