Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC Output Rises +320k bpd, Prices Struggle to Hold

Market Overview

During early Asian trading hours Monday, energy markets opened under pressure as geopolitical tensions and weaker global demand continue to shape sentiment. Crude oil prices fell on Friday, reflecting concerns that economic friction and slowing consumer activity could curb fuel consumption. U.S. personal spending for February rose just +0.4%, while consumer sentiment dipped to a 2⅓-year low of 57.0, further dampening demand expectations. Meanwhile, Chinese crude imports dropped -1.9% year-over-year, adding to the bearish tone.

On the supply side, a combination of rising OPEC+ output—up +320,000 bpd in February to a 14-month high—and surging Russian exports, which hit a 12-month peak of 2.5 million bpd, are increasing downward pressure on prices. However, renewed sanctions targeting Russia’s oil exports and increased risks of supply disruption from the Middle East offer support. Notably, stationary tanker storage rose +7.6% week-on-week to 67.43 million barrels, signaling soft near-term demand.

Meanwhile, the U.S. rig count fell by two to 484—just above its three-year low—highlighting ongoing production restraint. Despite volatility, U.S. output remains near record highs at 13.574 million bpd. Overall, the market remains delicately balanced between bearish macroeconomic signals and bullish geopolitical risk premiums.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas has broken decisively above a months-long descending trendline, with prices pushing through both the 50 EMA ($3.974) and 200 EMA ($3.937). The breakout is supported by a bullish ABCD harmonic pattern completing near $3.755, marking a strong inflection point.

Price is now trading comfortably above $4.00, with momentum accelerating toward the next key resistance at $4.228, followed by $4.416. This move confirms the end of the recent consolidation phase and suggests a shift in sentiment.

A sustained hold above $4.00 strengthens the bullish case, particularly with both EMAs now trending upward. Should prices dip, immediate support rests at $3.938, then $3.755—the breakout level and harmonic support.

With volume increasing on the breakout and structure aligning, bulls appear to have regained control. Natural gas breaks out above trendline and key EMAs. Bullish above $4.00, targeting $4.228 and $4.416. Pullbacks may attract buyers near $3.938.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude just slipped below its upward channel, breaking beneath the $69.19 pivot—a move that hints at short-term weakness. After a steady climb from mid-March, prices failed to hold above the 200 EMA ($69.14), and are now sitting under both the 50 EMA ($68.81) and 200 EMA.

The drop also puts pressure on the $68.49 support zone. If that breaks, the next level to watch is $67.61. On the upside, resistance now forms at $70.19, then $71.14. The RSI shows early signs of cooling momentum, but hasn’t hit oversold yet.

In short, the recent channel breakout and failure to hold the pivot level shifts the bias to bearish. Below $69.19, this looks more like a sell-the-rip scenario than a dip worth buying. A break below $69.19 and the rising channel shifts short-term bias bearish. Sell below $69.19.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading at $72.40, slipping below its key pivot level at $72.96. What’s catching traders’ attention is the bearish engulfing candle that formed at this level—a classic sign of momentum shifting to the downside.

Adding weight to the bearish case, price action has breached the lower boundary of the rising channel and now flirts with a potential 50/200 EMA bearish crossover, with the 50 EMA currently at $72.47 and the 200 EMA at $72.70.

If that crossover confirms below the $72.96 mark, it could accelerate downside pressure. Immediate support rests at $71.53, followed by $70.56.

On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim $72.96 to reestablish short-term control. Until then, the bias leans bearish. The bearish engulfing candle and EMA setup favor downside continuation. Sell below $72.96.