Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Tariff Relief and OPEC Supply Shape Near-Term Bias

Market Overview

WTI crude futures dropped to $61.30 per barrel as concerns over softening global demand and shifting geopolitical dynamics weighed on the energy market. While recent tariff exemptions offered limited relief, ongoing trade uncertainty continues to cloud the demand outlook.

Simultaneously, OPEC+’s faster-than-expected production ramp-up has raised fears of a supply glut. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions in key producing regions could boost global output, particularly as major buyers like China assess potential supply flows.

Traders are closely watching OPEC’s upcoming market outlook for clarity on near-term fundamentals, as both oil and natural gas remain sensitive to evolving geopolitical developments.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading in a tightening range, coiling between converging trendlines. Price is hovering near $3.484, below both the 50 EMA ($3.593) and 200 EMA ($3.820), signaling continued bearish pressure.

That said, support around $3.449 has held firm multiple times this week, suggesting buyers are stepping in on dips. A break above the short-term downtrend and $3.580 pivot would be a positive development, possibly triggering a move toward $3.688 and the 200 EMA.

On the flip side, a breakdown below $3.449 could quickly accelerate downside toward $3.337. For now, it’s a waiting game—whichever side of the triangle breaks first will likely dictate near-term direction.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is grinding higher after rebounding from April’s sharp selloff. Price is currently holding above a rising trendline and just nudged past the 50 EMA at $61.02. That’s a small but encouraging signal for bulls, especially if price can push through resistance at $63.31.

The 200 EMA looms at $64.61, so there’s room to rally before running into heavy supply. Momentum is building gradually, but traders should watch the pivot at $60.96—losing that would invalidate this setup.

For now, crude is holding its ground, with a cautious upward bias. Keep an eye on $63.31; a clean break could open the path to $64.84, while a rejection might pull price back toward $60.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is inching higher, attempting to reclaim key ground after a sharp drop from $75.40 to $58.36. Price is currently hovering near the Fib 38.2% level at $64.87, and the 50 EMA at $64.36 is offering some support.

With a steady series of higher lows and a rising trendline intact, bulls may try for a break toward the 50% retracement at $66.88. But momentum remains cautious; the 200 EMA at $68.16 still caps medium-term upside.

A clean move above $65 could build bullish confidence, while a failure to hold above $64 may drag price back toward $62.38. For now, Brent looks constructive, but needs confirmation above resistance to trigger stronger buying.