Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Triangle Breakout Looms Amid Supply Shifts and Tariff Fears

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Apr 22, 2025, 07:04 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

WTI crude rebounded 0.7% to $62.87 as traders covered shorts, but economic and geopolitical risks still weigh on sentiment.
Natural gas remains bearish at $3.02, stuck below key EMAs, with sellers in control and momentum showing no recovery signs.
Brent crude consolidates near $66.67, with resistance at $66.99 and cautious momentum ahead of key macro data.

In this article:

Natural Gas

-1.86%

WTI Oil

+0.32%

Brent Oil

+0.66%

Market Overview

Oil edged higher on Tuesday, with WTI June contracts rising 0.7% to $62.87 per barrel, as traders covered short positions following Monday’s 2% slide. While talks between the U.S. and Iran eased immediate supply concerns, broader market sentiment remains fragile.

Recession fears tied to tariff-driven economic headwinds and monetary policy uncertainty weigh heavily on demand forecasts. The dollar index has sunk to a three-year low, and investor sentiment toward U.S. assets is weakening.

Analysts anticipate WTI to hover between $55 and $65, while geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions relief continue to shape expectations for global oil supply and consumption.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas futures continue to grind lower, last seen at $3.02 after slipping below the key $3.05 pivot. The price is trading well below both the 50 EMA ($3.22) and 200 EMA ($3.56), with the downtrend channel intact. Immediate resistance stands at $3.05, followed by $3.15.

On the downside, support is pegged at $2.99, with $2.89 and $2.81 as deeper targets if bearish pressure persists. Momentum remains weak, and failed attempts to reclaim $3.07 signal sellers are still in control.

Unless we see a break above the descending trendline, it’s hard to argue for a turnaround. For now, the bears have the upper hand, and gas prices look set to test lower levels.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI crude is holding near $62.87, just below the $63.22 pivot point. Price is wedged between rising trendline support and heavy resistance from the 200 EMA at $63.50. The 50 EMA, currently at $62.26, continues to guide short-term support. If bulls can clear $63.22, the next resistance lies at $64.15.

On the downside, watch $61.71 as immediate support, followed by $59.89. The structure leans cautiously bullish, but price needs a firm push above the 200 EMA to unlock $65.55.

Until then, traders will likely respect the wedge pattern. Momentum is steady, but without volume, this rally risks stalling beneath $64. A breakout or breakdown looks imminent—keep an eye on that trendline.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude is treading water near $66.67, hovering just under the $66.99 pivot. The price is consolidating tightly between rising trendline support and the descending resistance from the March highs. The 50 EMA at $65.99 is offering a base, while the 200 EMA at $67.20 caps upside momentum.

A decisive break above $66.99 could open the path to $68.15 and $70.21. Failure to clear this range might drag price back toward $64.24 or deeper to $62.20. So far, Brent is grinding higher, but the lack of volume near resistance zones suggests traders are cautious.

This triangle is nearing its apex—expect a breakout or breakdown soon as macro headlines and inventory data weigh in.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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