Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will OPEC+ Output Cuts Delay Price Recovery?

Market Overview

Oil prices saw a marginal rise on Thursday, as heightened geopolitical tensions offset the impact of rising U.S. crude inventories, which increased by 545,000 barrels last week—exceeding forecasts.

Analysts warn that disruptions to energy infrastructure could amplify market volatility, with global oil demand averaging 103.6 million barrels per day in November, up 1.7 million bpd year-on-year. However, rising inventories and restored output from Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield tempered gains.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ may delay production increases amid weak demand, but the International Energy Agency forecasts that rising non-OPEC output could lead to oversupply by 2025. Energy markets remain on edge.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is gaining momentum, currently trading at $3.44, up 1.38%, as bullish sentiment takes hold. The price is supported by a “Three White Soldiers” candlestick pattern, signaling strong upward momentum on the 4-hour chart.

Immediate resistance sits at $3.53, with further targets at $3.70, but a break above $3.36 is critical for sustaining the rally. On the downside, key support is at $3.13—also the pivot point—and a break below this level could trigger sharp selling, potentially targeting $3.01 or even $2.86.

Technical indicators bolster the bullish case, with prices comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($2.94) and the 200-day EMA ($2.73). For now, the bias remains bullish above $3.13, but traders should monitor these key levels closely.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) is trading slightly lower at $68.90, down 0.13%, as the market struggles to find direction. The price has dipped below the pivot point at $69.15, signaling a potential bearish breakout if this level holds as resistance.

Immediate support lies at $68.07, with additional downside targets at $67.37 and $66.66. On the upside, a break above $69.72 could open the door to resistance levels at $70.54 and $71.41. The 50-day EMA at $68.85 provides nearby support, while the 200-day EMA at $69.37 is reinforcing bearish sentiment.

For now, the trend leans bearish below $69.15, but a decisive move above this level could revive bullish momentum.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

UKOIL (Brent) is trading at $72.93, down 0.15%, as prices hover just below the pivot point at $73.07. The immediate support at $72.25 is holding steady, with further downside levels at $71.51 and $70.67 if selling pressure intensifies. On the upside, resistance sits at $73.83, followed by $74.43 and $74.98.

The price is currently testing the 50-day EMA at $72.87, while the 200-day EMA at $73.21 adds another layer of resistance.

Brent has completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $72.60, signaling a potential inflection point. For now, the trend leans bullish above $73.07, but a break below this level could shift the market’s momentum toward further declines.