Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Will U.S. Tariffs Fuel Market Volatility?

Market Overview

Oil prices rose 2% as China’s manufacturing PMI hit a three-month high, signaling a rebound in demand from the world’s largest crude importer. However, global energy markets remain on edge, with ongoing supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions fueling uncertainty.

Attacks on refineries have raised concerns over export capacity, while stalled peace talks have dimmed hopes for easing sanctions-related supply constraints. Meanwhile, upcoming U.S. tariffs—set to increase by 10% on March 4—could prompt retaliatory measures, adding further volatility.

Despite these risks, Brent crude is forecast to average $74.63 per barrel in 2025, with supply and demand factors likely to keep prices range-bound.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) is treading water at $3.79, barely moving as traders weigh supply dynamics against macroeconomic uncertainty. The 50-day EMA at $3.92 is acting as immediate resistance, while the pivot point at $3.89 remains a critical battleground.

If prices break above $3.89, we could see a push toward $4.23, but failure to reclaim this level keeps the short-term bias bearish. On the downside, strong support sits at $3.55, with $3.31 acting as a safety net if selling accelerates.

The 200-day EMA at $3.59 suggests longer-term stability, but for now, bulls need a solid breakout to shift momentum. Watch for a decisive move above $3.89—otherwise, this chop continues.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil (USOIL) is hovering around $70.01, barely budging as traders assess whether the recent bounce has legs. The pivot point at $70.48 is the key level to watch—staying below it keeps the bias bearish, while a break above could fuel a rally toward $71.15 and potentially $72.03.

However, with the 50-day EMA at $70.28 and the 200-day EMA at $71.73, resistance remains strong. On the downside, immediate support sits at $69.21, with $68.34 as a deeper cushion if sellers regain control.

The downward trendline is still intact, meaning crude needs a solid close above $70.48 to shake off the selling pressure and build bullish momentum.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude (UKOIL) is sitting at $73.06, inching higher but still struggling to gain momentum. The pivot point at $73.72 is the level to watch—if prices stay below it, the trend remains bearish, but a breakout could push Brent toward $75.23 and possibly $76.19.

The 50-day EMA at $73.81 is acting as a ceiling, while the 200-day EMA at $75.26 reinforces strong resistance ahead. On the downside, immediate support sits at $71.88, with $70.95 providing a deeper safety net if sellers step in.

With a downward trendline still in play, bulls need a decisive close above $73.72 to shift sentiment and open the door for further upside.