Natural Gas News: Bullish Momentum May Be Building Above 200-Day MA Support Test

Futures Hold Ground as Technical Support and Early Summer Heat Potential Offset Bearish Inventory Data

U.S. natural gas futures traded flat on Tuesday, holding gains from Monday’s strong rally as prices consolidate near the 200-day moving average.

Despite briefly reaching a one-week high at $3.457 earlier in the session, futures pulled back to around $3.360, searching for a catalyst to break higher toward resistance near $3.733.

The market’s ability to stay above $3.089—the key 200-day level—signals strong technical support and growing bullish sentiment into the early summer.

At 14:30 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.351, up $0.008 or +0.24%.

Are Technical Indicators Pointing to a Bullish Rebound?

The recent bounce follows a sharp sell-off that pushed prices into technically oversold territory ahead of the May contract’s expiry. Monday’s settlement at $3.170/MMBtu marked a strong rebound from Friday’s low of $2.973, the weakest level since mid-November. June futures, now the front month, extended gains with a close at $3.343.

Analysts, including Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading, point to a successful retest of the December breakout trendline near $3.300 as a technical confirmation of support. Garner noted that this same level sparked a rally in March, and its defense now reinforces the potential for another leg higher.

How Does Light Near-Term Demand Affect the Bullish Case?

However, the demand outlook in the immediate term remains soft. Forecasts from NatGasWeather show most of the U.S. experiencing mild temperatures in the 60s-80s through early May, limiting heating and cooling demand. National consumption is expected to remain very light, with expectations for a storage build exceeding 100 Bcf this week.

Is Inventory Pressure Capping the Upside?

Last Thursday’s EIA report added bearish weight, showing a storage injection of +88 Bcf for the week ending April 18—well above both the +75 Bcf consensus and the 5-year average build of +58 Bcf. Still, inventories are down 20.2% year-over-year and sit 2.3% below their 5-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, European storage lags its seasonal norm, at just 38% full compared to the 5-year average of 48%.

Does the Rig Count Suggest Tightening Supply Ahead?

Supply-side conditions are still constrained. Baker Hughes reported the active U.S. gas rig count rose by one to 99 last week, but remains well below the 2022 peak. This reflects ongoing production restraint, which could tighten supply further as demand picks up in the summer cooling season.

Market Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds as Support Levels Strengthen

With technical support holding, modest production, and seasonal heat building, the outlook tilts cautiously bullish. Prices may consolidate near current levels short-term, but a move toward $3.733 is possible if weather-driven demand intensifies or another bullish catalyst emerges.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.