Natural Gas News: Weak Demand and Warmer Weather Weigh

Natural Gas Futures Edge Lower as Warm Weather Caps Demand

U.S. natural gas futures are slipping on Wednesday, with prices approaching the 50-day moving average at $3.024. Support levels from last week remain at $2.990 and $2.932. Warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the U.S. are keeping demand low, leading to overnight selling pressure.

Weak Heating Demand Keeps Prices in Check

Weather forecasts indicate that the northern third of the U.S. will experience colder temperatures over the next seven days, with highs ranging from below zero to the 30s. However, the southern two-thirds of the country will remain mild, with temperatures in the 50s-80s, particularly in Texas, where highs are expected to reach the 70s-80s.

Despite this regional cold, overall national demand is projected to be lighter than normal in the short term. While forecasts for the 8-13 day period still suggest colder air advancing across the U.S., the latest overnight weather models have trended slightly warmer, reducing the number of heating degree days (HDDs). This shift has weighed on natural gas prices, triggering selling in overnight trading.

EU Storage Talks Could Impact Long-Term Price Outlook

In Europe, top natural gas storage holders, including Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, are discussing easing mandatory refilling targets beyond 2025. The European Commission had initially set a goal for EU storage sites to reach 90% capacity by November 1 each year. However, policymakers in major gas-storing nations are concerned that elevated forward prices for summer gas could make storage unprofitable.

Italy and the Netherlands are among the countries signaling a willingness to consider more flexible storage targets, shifting from fixed mandates to an “ambition” model. Meanwhile, the EU is also weighing an extension of existing storage requirements beyond 2025, as colder winter weather has led to the fastest depletion of reserves in eight years.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Pressure Persists

With U.S. demand expected to remain weak over the next week and weather models trending slightly warmer, natural gas prices are likely to stay under pressure in the short term. While the potential for colder air in the 8-13 day range could provide some support, traders will be watching for confirmation in updated forecasts.

On the European side, uncertainty around storage policy could influence long-term market dynamics, but immediate pricing remains tied to near-term weather and demand trends. For now, the path of least resistance appears lower unless colder temperatures materialize more decisively.