Natural Gas News: Weather Report and CFTC Data Fuel Bearish Market Sentiment

Natural Gas Futures Under Pressure as Technical Breakdown Looms

U.S. natural gas futures are slipping in Monday trading, giving up all of March’s gains and positioning to challenge a key technical support level. Traders are eyeing the 50-day moving average at $3.783, which has supported the market since December. A decisive break below this level would confirm a shift in near-term sentiment, with the potential for accelerated selling.

At 15:22 GMT, natural gas futures are trading $3.805, down $0.109 or -2.78%.

Can the 50-Day Moving Average Hold?

The 50-day moving average has been a reliable floor for natural gas prices in recent months. However, with futures now trading lower for the week and testing this level, the market is at a critical juncture. A breakdown could open the door to a test of the March 3 low at $3.742, and below that, the pivot support at $3.350 comes into play. Immediate resistance is sitting at $3.924, but the technical tone has turned soft, and bulls are losing grip.

Speculators Cut Longs, Eroding Bullish Support

CFTC data for the week ending March 18 revealed that professional speculators slashed net long positions by 34,000 contracts. This move reflects a pullback from the bullish positioning that previously helped drive front-month prices toward $5/MMBtu. According to EBW Analytics, the drawdown included 39,000 long contracts versus just 5,000 short closures, suggesting a meaningful retreat in speculative confidence. The trend has been consistent over the past two weeks, with 58,000 long positions liquidated—pressuring prices further.

Warm Weather Outlook Cools Demand Expectations

Weather forecasts through March 30 indicate light natural gas demand. Temperatures across the northern U.S. will range from the 30s to 60s, while the southern tier will see milder highs in the 50s to 80s. The combination of a warmer-than-average March and an early injection season start is reinforcing the soft demand environment and weighing on fundamentals.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Bias Building

With technical support under threat, speculative length unwinding, and near-term weather reducing demand, the natural gas market is skewing bearish. If the 50-day moving average fails to hold, traders should brace for deeper losses toward $3.742 and potentially $3.350. Until demand signals improve or fresh supply-side risks emerge, downside risks remain elevated.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.